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package org.singinst.uf.model;
public interface UiTextConstant {
UiText Q1_1_TEXT =
new UiText("Is artificial intelligence possible in principle?",
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// " <META NAME=\"AUTHOR\" CONTENT=\"Michael Anissimov\">" +
// " <META NAME=\"CREATED\" CONTENT=\"20081007;10570000\">" +
// " <META NAME=\"CHANGEDBY\" CONTENT=\"Rolf Nelson\">" +
// " <META NAME=\"CHANGED\" CONTENT=\"20090118;21592300\">" +
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"<BODY LANG=\"en-US\" TEXT=\"#000000\" LINK=\"#0000ff\" DIR=\"LTR\">" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\">Gene sequencing costs" +
"have been dropping exponentially for some time. Here is a graph (from" +
"Kurzweil 2005) that shows the trend from 1990 to 2004:</P>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><IMG SRC=\"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhEAAOALMAAOazToeHh0tLS/7LZv/0jvb29t/f3//Ub//ge8WSLf/rhf/3kdbW1mxsbP//mf///yH5BAAAAAAALAAAAAAQAA4AAARe8L1Ekyky67QZ1hLnjM5UUde0ECwLJoExKcpp\n" +
"V0aCcGCmTIHEIUEqjgaORCMxIC6e0CcguWw6aFjsVMkkIr7g77ZKPJjPZqIyd7sJAgVGoEGv2xsBxqNgYPj/gAwXEQA7\" " +
"ALIGN=BOTTOM WIDTH=500 HEIGHT=383 BORDER=0></P>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>Germline genetic" +
"modification for enhancing human intelligence would depend upon the" +
"availability and cost of sequenced genomes. When will it be possible" +
"to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?</P>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" +
"</P>" +
"<UL>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-top: 0.19in; margin-bottom: 0in\">" +
" <B>Claim: </B>According to the trendline in the Kurzweil graph," +
" assuming a sequencing cost of $0.002 per base pair in 2008 (based on" +
" a $60,000 full-genome sequence by Applied Biosystems in March 2008)" +
" and a cost halving time of 1.9 years, we can assume $1,000 genomes" +
" sometime around 2020.<BR><B>Implication: </B>$1,000 genomes in" +
" 2020.<BR><B>Source: </B>Kurzweil, Ray. <I>The Singularity is Near:" +
" When Humans Transcend Biology</I>. 2005. New York: Penguin" +
" (Non-Classics).</P>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" +
" first human genome cost either $3 billion (Human Genome Project) or" +
" $300 million (Celera Genomics) in 2001, James Watson’s genome" +
" cost $2 million in 2007, and Applied Biosystems sequenced a human" +
" genome for $60,000 in two weeks in March 2008. One company," +
" Intelligent Bio-systems, has claimed they will be able to provide" +
" $5,000, 24-hour genomes by the end of 2008. <BR><B>Implication: </B>The" +
" number of human genomes we can sequence for a fixed cost has been" +
" increasing at a sharp exponential, often exceeding earlier" +
" expectations.<BR><B>Sources:</B> Chu, Wai Lang. "Applied Bio" +
" sequences a human genome for $60,000." " +
" LabTechnologist.com. 18 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug. 2008" +
" <<A HREF=\"http://www.labtechnologist.com/products/applied-bio-sequences-a-human-genome-for-60-000\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.labtechnologist.com/products/applied-bio-sequences-a-human-genome-for-60-000</U></FONT></A>>. <BR>Singer," +
" Emily. "The $2 Million Genome." Technology Review. 1" +
" June <BR>2007. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 9 Aug." +
" 2008 <BR><<A HREF=\"http://www.technologyreview.com/biotech/18809/\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.technologyreview.com/biotech/18809/</U></FONT></A>>. <BR>Wang," +
" Brian. "Whole genome sequencing costs continue to fall:" +
" $300 <BR>million in 2003, $1 million 2007, $60,000 now, $5000" +
" by year end." <BR>Next Big Future. 25 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug." +
" 2008 <BR><<A HREF=\"http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/genome-sequencing-costs-continue-to.html\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/genome-sequencing-costs-continue-to.html</U></FONT></A>>. </P>" +
"</UL>" +
"<UL>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" +
" cost of gene sequencing (per base pair) has been decreasing" +
" exponentially since 1970.<BR><B>Implication:</B> Unless something" +
" changes, exponential growth in capability will probably continue" +
" into the future.<BR><B>Source:</B> Shendure, Jay, Robi D. Mitra," +
" Chris Varma, and George M. Church. <BR>"Advanced" +
" Sequencing Technologies: Methods and Goals." Nature" +
" Reviews <BR>Genetics 5 (2004): 335-44. 9 Aug. 2008" +
" <<A HREF=\"http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" +
"</UL>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" +
"</P>" +
"<UL>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" +
" Archon X prize, for rapid sequencing of 100 human genomes at less" +
" than $10,000 each, has a deadline of October 2013.<BR><B>Implication:</B>" +
" Some scientists think that DNA sequencing costs will continue to" +
" drop quickly enough that 2013 is a viable deadline.<BR><B>Source:</B>" +
" X Prize Foundation. $10 Million Archon XPrize For Genomics." +
" "Archon <BR>Genomics X Prize: Competition Guidelines."" +
" 2 Nov. 2006. <BR>9 Aug. 2008" +
" <<A HREF=\"http://genomics.xprize.org/files/downloads/genomics/archon_x_prize_for_genomics_competiton_guidelines.pdf\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://genomics.xprize.org/files/downloads/genomics/archon_x_prize_for_genomics_competiton_guidelines.pdf</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" +
"</UL>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" +
"</P>" +
"<UL>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> The" +
" NHGRI, a government institute, has awarded grants to researchers" +
" with the goal of reducing sequencing costs to $1,000/human" +
" genome.<BR><B>Implication:</B> A price of $1,000 per genome is a" +
" viable research goal in the near term and is already being actively" +
" funded.<BR><B>Source: </B>National Institutes of Health. National" +
" Human Genome Research <BR>Institute. "NHGRI Aims to Make" +
" DNA Sequencing Faster, More Cost <BR>Effective." Press" +
" release. 4 Oct. 2006. 9 Aug. 2008 <<A HREF=\"http://www.genome.gov/19518500\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>http://www.genome.gov/19518500</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" +
"</UL>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-left: 0.25in; margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" +
"</P>" +
"<UL>" +
" <LI><P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><B>Claim:</B> 23" +
" and Me, a private company, will sequence 600,000 single nucleotide" +
" polymorphisms (SNPs) for private individuals for" +
" $1,000.<BR><B>Implication:</B> There is a large consumer demand for" +
" genomics, so research in this area will continue to be heavily" +
" funded.<BR><B>Source:</B> "23 and Me." 24 July 2008. 9" +
" Aug. 2008 <<A HREF=\"https://www.23andme.com/\" TARGET=\"_blank\"><FONT COLOR=\"#0000ff\"><U>https://www.23andme.com/</U></FONT></A>>.</P>" +
"</UL>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><BR>" +
"</P>" +
"<P CLASS=\"western\" STYLE=\"margin-bottom: 0in\"><A NAME=\"0.1_01000004\"></A><A NAME=\"0.1_0100000A\"></A>" +
"<BR>" +
"</P>" +
"</BODY>" +
"</html>"
);
UiText Q1_2_TEXT = new UiText("When will computing power stop improving exponentially?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_3_TEXT = new UiText("How much computing power for neuromorphic (brain-like) AI?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_4_TEXT = new UiText("How much funding will the largest neuromorphic AI projects have to buy computers with?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_5_TEXT = new UiText("When will we have enough brain imaging technology that we can build neuromorphic (brain-like) AI?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText C1_5_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " +
"Based on your answers, here is the (preliminary) probability that neuromorphic artificial intelligence will have been " + "created at different points in the future:</span>",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_6_TEXT = new UiText("What about non-neuromorphic AI? When will that be feasible?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText C1_6_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " +
"Based on your answers, here is the (preliminary) probability that artificial intelligence of any sort " +
"(neuromorphic or non-neuromorphic) will have been created at different points in the future:</span>",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_7_TEXT = new UiText("What is the probability per year of major nuclear war that disrupts scientific progress?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_8_TEXT = new UiText("What is the probability per year of a non-nuclear catastrophe that disrupts scientific progress?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText C1_8_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:<br></strong> " +
"Based on your answers, here is the probability that a science-disrupting disaster will have occurred by " +
"different points in the future (assuming, for now, that AI has not occurred):</span>",
"TODO: implemente help text");
UiText Q1_9_1_TEXT = new UiText("When will it be possible to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_9_2_TEXT = new UiText("How long before artificial gametes?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_9_3_TEXT = new UiText("How much do genetic variations contribute to scientific achievement?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_9_4_TEXT = new UiText("How widely will iterated embryo selection technology be adopted?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText Q1_9_5_TEXT = new UiText("What about other methods for enhancing human intelligence?",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText C1_9_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color:#000;'<strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " +
"Based on your answers, here is the probability that artificial intelligence will have been created at " +
"different points in the future. This time, we're factoring in your probabilities for " +
"intelligence enhancement that speeds AI research.</span>",
"TODO: implement help text");
UiText C1_10_TEXT = new UiText("<html><span style='color: #000;'><strong>The future, according to you:</strong><br> " +
"Based on your answers, here is the probability that there will have been a civilization-scale disruption " +
"to business as usual by different points in the future.</span>",
"TODO: implement help text");
}
|
