Gene sequencing costs" + "have been dropping exponentially for some time. Here is a graph (from" + "Kurzweil 2005) that shows the trend from 1990 to 2004:
" + "
Germline genetic" +
"modification for enhancing human intelligence would depend upon the" +
"availability and cost of sequenced genomes. When will it be possible" +
"to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?
" +
"
" +
" Claim: According to the trendline in the Kurzweil graph," +
" assuming a sequencing cost of $0.002 per base pair in 2008 (based on" +
" a $60,000 full-genome sequence by Applied Biosystems in March 2008)" +
" and a cost halving time of 1.9 years, we can assume $1,000 genomes" +
" sometime around 2020.
Implication: $1,000 genomes in" +
" 2020.
Source: Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity is Near:" +
" When Humans Transcend Biology. 2005. New York: Penguin" +
" (Non-Classics).
Claim: The" +
" first human genome cost either $3 billion (Human Genome Project) or" +
" $300 million (Celera Genomics) in 2001, James Watson’s genome" +
" cost $2 million in 2007, and Applied Biosystems sequenced a human" +
" genome for $60,000 in two weeks in March 2008. One company," +
" Intelligent Bio-systems, has claimed they will be able to provide" +
" $5,000, 24-hour genomes by the end of 2008.
Implication: The" +
" number of human genomes we can sequence for a fixed cost has been" +
" increasing at a sharp exponential, often exceeding earlier" +
" expectations.
Sources: Chu, Wai Lang. "Applied Bio" +
" sequences a human genome for $60,000." " +
" LabTechnologist.com. 18 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug. 2008" +
" <http://www.labtechnologist.com/products/applied-bio-sequences-a-human-genome-for-60-000>.
Singer," +
" Emily. "The $2 Million Genome." Technology Review. 1" +
" June
2007. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 9 Aug." +
" 2008
<http://www.technologyreview.com/biotech/18809/>.
Wang," +
" Brian. "Whole genome sequencing costs continue to fall:" +
" $300
million in 2003, $1 million 2007, $60,000 now, $5000" +
" by year end."
Next Big Future. 25 Mar. 2008. 9 Aug." +
" 2008
<http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/genome-sequencing-costs-continue-to.html>.
Claim: The" +
" cost of gene sequencing (per base pair) has been decreasing" +
" exponentially since 1970.
Implication: Unless something" +
" changes, exponential growth in capability will probably continue" +
" into the future.
Source: Shendure, Jay, Robi D. Mitra," +
" Chris Varma, and George M. Church.
"Advanced" +
" Sequencing Technologies: Methods and Goals." Nature" +
" Reviews
Genetics 5 (2004): 335-44. 9 Aug. 2008" +
" <http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html>.
" +
"
Claim: The" +
" Archon X prize, for rapid sequencing of 100 human genomes at less" +
" than $10,000 each, has a deadline of October 2013.
Implication:" +
" Some scientists think that DNA sequencing costs will continue to" +
" drop quickly enough that 2013 is a viable deadline.
Source:" +
" X Prize Foundation. $10 Million Archon XPrize For Genomics." +
" "Archon
Genomics X Prize: Competition Guidelines."" +
" 2 Nov. 2006.
9 Aug. 2008" +
" <http://genomics.xprize.org/files/downloads/genomics/archon_x_prize_for_genomics_competiton_guidelines.pdf>.
" +
"
Claim: The" +
" NHGRI, a government institute, has awarded grants to researchers" +
" with the goal of reducing sequencing costs to $1,000/human" +
" genome.
Implication: A price of $1,000 per genome is a" +
" viable research goal in the near term and is already being actively" +
" funded.
Source: National Institutes of Health. National" +
" Human Genome Research
Institute. "NHGRI Aims to Make" +
" DNA Sequencing Faster, More Cost
Effective." Press" +
" release. 4 Oct. 2006. 9 Aug. 2008 <http://www.genome.gov/19518500>.
" +
"
Claim: 23" +
" and Me, a private company, will sequence 600,000 single nucleotide" +
" polymorphisms (SNPs) for private individuals for" +
" $1,000.
Implication: There is a large consumer demand for" +
" genomics, so research in this area will continue to be heavily" +
" funded.
Source: "23 and Me." 24 July 2008. 9" +
" Aug. 2008 <https://www.23andme.com/>.
" +
"