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<P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">What is the improvement
curve of all other forms of human intelligence enhancement, such as
smart drugs, brain-computer interfaces, implants, augmented reality,
and neuroengineering? That is, what multiplier will they confer to
scientific progress in the world as a whole?</P>
<UL>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim: </B>The
human brain has already been highly optimized by evolution, and
making further improvements is likely to be very difficult. There is
evidence that certain neurological diseases, such as schizophrenia,
are in fact by-products of our large and metabolically hungry
brains. Further "improvements" to the brain may produce so
many dangerous side effects that they are untenable. Furthermore,
restrictions on human experimentation will radically slow human
intelligence enhancement research. Improvements not based on biology
are likely to yield relatively small progress gains.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Slow improvements over the course of the century, driven primarily
by factors such as improved interfaces and usability.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Baldwin', 0.01, 0.1, 0.19);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Sources:</B>
Baldwin, Graeme. "Human brains pay a price for being big."
EurekAlert. 4 Aug. 2008.
<<U><A HREF="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-08/bc-hbp080108.php" TARGET="_blank">http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-08/bc-hbp080108.php</A></U>>.<BR>Smart,
John M. "Limits to Biology." Acceleration Watch. 2008.
<<U><A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html">http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html</A></U>>.
</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B>
Though biological and
pharmaceutical interventions are likely to be held back both by the
inherent difficulties of biology and restrictions on human
experimentation, better computer interfaces and displays, including
augmented and virtual reality, and eventually mind uploading, are
likely to accelerate scientific research as they are
adopted.<BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Smart, John M. "Acceleration Watch." Acceleration Watch.
2008. <<U><A HREF="http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html" TARGET="_blank">http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html</A></U>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> Significant
enhancements to human intelligence through biological and
pharmaceutical interventions are plausible, and are likely to cause
significant acceleration of scientific research in coming decades.
These, coupled together with better interfaces, give us reason to expect large gains. The
finding that 20% of scientists take performance-enhancing drugs for
non-medical reasons, even when these drugs are just in their
infancy, shows how much demand there will be when these drugs work
even better.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Productivity gains by a factor of 10 or more, with ramp-up beginning
almost immediately.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Bonifield', 0.01, 0.85, 1.69);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Bonifield, John. "Use of brain-boosting drugs reported in
survey." CNN Health. 9 Apr. 2008.
<<U><A HREF="http://www.cnn.com/2008/health/04/09/brain.drugs/" TARGET="_blank">http://www.cnn.com/2008/health/04/09/brain.drugs/</A></U>>.<BR>DeNoon,
Daniel J. "Poll: Scientists Use Brain-Boosting Drugs."
WebMD. 9 Apr. 2008. Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008
<<U><A HREF="http://www.webmd.com/brain/news/20080409/poll-scientists-use-brain-boosting-drugs" TARGET="_blank">http://www.webmd.com/brain/news/20080409/poll-scientists-use-brain-boosting-drugs</A></U>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> Science could be
significantly accelerated by changes in the infrastructure of
science and better software, like a superior version of Google
Scholar or other better intelligence "glue".<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> Productivity could
expand by a factor of 2 to 10 by improvements not to the structure
of human intelligence, but in the way that researchers interact and
organize their time and resources.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Various people', 0.3, 0.65, 1.0);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B> Various.
</P>
</UL>
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