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<P CLASS="western">Input your distribution for
the number of research-ability-enhanced children
conceived per year that later go on to be research scientists.
</P>
<B>Helpful facts:</B><BR>
<P>Approximately 135 million children are
born per year. On average worldwide, 5 children per 1000 go on to
be researchers. In certain countries
like the United States, 20 per 1000 children become researchers.</P>
<P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">The total number of
children born per year that later go on to be researchers is roughly
7 million. Remember to take into account expansions in the
research sectors of developing countries.
</P>
<UL>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim: </B>Based
on popular opposition to "designer babies" and
emerging biotechnologies like human cloning of any type, it is
unlikely that this practice will catch on, and it may in fact be
outlawed worldwide, meaning that the number of children conceived
using this technique through 2070 will be trivial.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Estimates and error bars close to zero.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Darnovsky', 0.01, 1.0, 1.99, 0.01, 1.0, 1.99);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Sources:</B>
Darnovsky, Marcy. "The Case Against Designer Babies."
Redesigning Life?: The Worldwide Challenge to Genetic Engineering.
By Brian Tokar. New York: Zed Books, Limited, 2001. Center for
Genetics and Society. 30 Nov. 2000. 9 Aug. 2008
<<U><A HREF="http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=3540" TARGET="_blank">http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=3540</A></U>>.<BR>
Smith, Wesley J. "The U.N. on Cloning: Ban It." <I>The Daily
Standard</I>. 15 Mar. 2005. Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008.
<<U><A HREF="http://www.weeklystandard.com/content/public/articles/000/000/005/360mveat.asp" TARGET="_blank">http://www.weeklystandard.com/content/public/articles/000/000/005/360mveat.asp</A></U>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B> As with other medical
technologies that were once feared and are now routine, such as the
dissection of cadavers (300 BC), vaccination (1771), and in vitro
fertilization (1978), it is likely that the world will largely
embrace embryo selection, though it may take a few decades. <BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Adoption similar to other widely beneficial reproductive
technologies — high but not universal.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Miah', 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.25, 5.2, 6.15);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Miah, Andy. "Genetic Selection for Human Enhancement."
Journal of International Biotechnology Law 4 (2007): 1-45.
<<U><A HREF="http://ieet.org/archive/Miah2007GeneticSelectionJIBL-IEETweb.pdf" TARGET="_blank">http://ieet.org/archive/Miah2007GeneticSelectionJIBL-IEETweb.pdf</A></U>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B> Not only will the
technology be considered acceptable, but it will be considered so
beneficial that adoption is likely to be fast and widespread,
similar to the adoption of condoms.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Many millions of families will use the technology to give their
children better opportunities, and within a couple decades from the
introduction of the technology, there will be many millions of
researchers who were born using the technology.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Miah', 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.25, 5.2, 6.15);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Miah, Andy. "Genetic Selection for Human Enhancement."
Journal of International Biotechnology Law 4 (2007): 1-45.
<<U><A HREF="http://ieet.org/archive/Miah2007GeneticSelectionJIBL-IEETweb.pdf" TARGET="_blank">http://ieet.org/archive/Miah2007GeneticSelectionJIBL-IEETweb.pdf</A></U>>. </P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B>
Attitudes toward genetic testing and
selection in China make it likely that the
technology will be widely adopted there. The United States and other
Western countries will then adopt it just to keep up.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> Millions of selected
researchers will eventually exist, but not as many as if Western
countries had adopted the technology willingly.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Su et al.', 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.9, 5.2, 6.5);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Su, Baoqi and Macer, Darryl R.J. "Chinese people's attitudes
towards genetic diseases and children with handicaps". <I>Law
and Human Genome Review</I>
18 (2003), 191-210.
</P>
</UL>
</body>
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