1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
|
<head>
<script>
function loadPercentile(name, startK5, startK50, startK95, stopK5, stopK50, stopK95) {
var args =
{
"caption": "Loaded our interpretation of " + name + "\'s probability.",
"Q7.y2010.0k5.0": startK5,
"Q7.y2010.0k50.0": startK50,
"Q7.y2010.0k95.0": startK95,
"Q7.y2070.0k5.0": stopK5,
"Q7.y2070.0k50.0": stopK50,
"Q7.y2070.0k95.0": stopK95
};
top.loadData(args);
}
</script>
</head>
<body>
What is the probability
that there will be a nuclear war between now and 2070 so severe that
it sets progress towards human-level AI back decades or centuries?
For this model, you may set a constant probability per year/decade or
have it go up or down over time at a constant rate.</P>
<P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">First, think about
current political conditions. How likely is nuclear war now? Your
answer for this will go on the left-hand side of the graph, near
2010.</P>
<P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">Then, think about what
conditions may be like in 2070. Maybe nuclear war will become more likely as
weapons technologies proliferate. Maybe nuclear war will become less likely
as global political institutions improve. Your answer for 2070 will
go on the right-hand side of the graph, near 2070.
</P>
<UL>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B>
Stanford Professor Martin Hellman, who has researched the topic for
decades, estimates a 1% annual probability of nuclear war between
major nuclear powers. Reviewing the literature, he found no other
references on the annual probability of nuclear war. <BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Although 1% is probably more likely than 0.001% or 50%, little
serious research has been done and probability distributions should
be wide.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Hellman', -2.7061, -2.0, -1.301, -2.7061, -2.0, -1.301);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source: </B>Hellman, Martin E. "Risk Analysis of
Nuclear Deterrence." The Bent Spring 2008: 14-22. Defusing the
Nuclear Threat. 9 Aug. 2008 <<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf" TARGET="_blank">http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf</A></U></FONT>>.
</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> Many experts estimate the
annual risk of a nuclear terrorist attack at around
1%-5%.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> Rogue nuclear bombings, which may lead
to nuclear retaliation and subsequent escalation into full-scale
nuclear war, are not impossible and may be quite likely in the next
10-20 years.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentile('Lugar', -2.6021, -2.1249, -1.622, -2.6026, -2.3010, -2.0);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source:</B> Lugar, Richard G., United States Senator for
Indiana. The Lugar Survey on
Proliferation Threats and Responses. Washington, D.C.: Office of
Senator Lugar, 2005.<BR> 9 Aug. 2008 <<U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/npsurvey.pdf" TARGET="_blank">http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/npsurvey.pdf</A></U>>.
Pg. 22.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> The US has expressed
willingness to use nuclear weapons under very broad circumstances,
even when no other WMDs are involved.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Generals and other officials are not that reluctant to use nuclear
weapons, making a nuclear escalation probable.<BR>
<B>Source:</B>
U.S. Department of Defense. Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations.
Joint Publication 3-12. Final Coordination (2). Mar. 15, 2005. 9
Aug. 2008
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/jp3_12fc2.pdf" TARGET="_blank">http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/jp3_12fc2.pdf</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> During the Cold War, a US
research paper used estimates ranging around 1%-5% annually for
nuclear war risk models.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> High political
tensions can lead to significant annual probabilities of nuclear
war.<BR>
<B>Source:</B> Avenhaus, Rudolf, Steven J. Brams, John
Fichtner, and Marc D. Kilgour. "The Probability of Nuclear
War". Rep.No. 86-24. C.V. Starr Center for Applied
Economics, New York University. 5 Aug. 2008. IDEAS. RePEc. 9 <BR>Aug.
2008 <<U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://ideas.repec.org/p/cvs/starer/86-24.html">http://ideas.repec.org/p/cvs/starer/86-24.html</A></U>>.
</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western">
<B>Claim:</B> Even a relatively small nuclear
war could disrupt global climate for a decade or more.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B>
Indirect damage from nuclear war could greatly exceed direct
destruction.<BR>
<B>Source:</B> "Regional Nuclear War Could
Devastate Global Climate." ScienceDaily. 11 Dec. 2006.
Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008.
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061211090729.htm" TARGET="_blank">http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061211090729.htm</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
</UL>
<UL>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0.19in">
<B>Claim:</B>
Between 1956 and 1979, there have been at least 20 mishaps that
could have led to accidental nuclear war between the US and USSR.
Even if the chance of each one leading to a war was small, when so
many pile up, the overall chance of disaster may be
substantial.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> Even if there are no outright
hostilities, a full-scale nuclear war may occur simply by accident.
Once a war gets started, it may be difficult to stop. <BR>
<B>Source:</B>
Phillips, Alan F. "20 Mishaps that Might Have Started
Accidental Nuclear War." Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. Jan.
1998. Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008.
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1998/01/00_phillips_20-mishaps.htm" TARGET="_blank">http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/1998/01/00_phillips_20-mishaps.htm</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
</UL>
</body>
|
