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<body>
<P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">If
nothing really disruptive happens in the mean time (major nuclear war,
substantial human intelligence enhancement, human-level AI, etc.),
when will <U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law">Moore's
law</A></U> level off? The points on the graph show past data.
</P>
<UL>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B> The
amount of computing power that can be purchased for a given amount
of money has doubled roughly every eighteen months since at least
1960. On May 1st, 2008, at
the Intel Developers Forum, Pat Gelsinger, the senior vice president and
co-general manager of Intel's Digital Enterprise Group, predicted that this trend will continue through
2029.<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> Given no major disruptions, we can
expect the regular doubling in available computing hardware per dollar to
continue through 2029.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentiles('Gelsinger', 10.7051, 11.7051, 12.7051);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source: </B>"Moore's Law: "We
See No End in Sight," Says Intel's Pat Gelsinger." 1 May
2008. <I>SOA World Magazine News Desk</I>. 8 Aug. 2008
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://java.sys-con.com/node/557154" TARGET="_blank">http://java.sys-con.com/node/557154</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in"><B>Claim: </B>"In
terms of size [of transistor] you can see that we're approaching the
size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or
three generations before we get that far — but that's as far out as
we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before
we reach a fundamental limit. Electronics though is a fundamental
technology that's not likely to be replaced directly. There's a
difference between making a small machine and connecting them by the
billion. Nanotech will have an impact but it's not about replacing
electronics in the foreseeable future." — Gordon Moore,
co-founder of Intel, 2005<BR>
<B>Implication: </B>The doubling in
available computing hardware per dollar will run into fundamental
limits sometime around 2015 or 2025, leveling off into an
S-curve.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentiles('Moore', 8.0, 8.9673, 9.9346);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source: </B>Dubash, Manek. "Moore's Law is dead,
says Gordon Moore." <I>Techworld</I>. 13 Apr. 2005. 8 Aug. 2008
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?newsid=3477" TARGET="_blank">http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?newsid=3477</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim:</B>
Developing more and faster chips requires large consumer demand for
such chips, and such demand will not be present in the future.<BR>
<B>Implication: </B>Hardware availability will slowly
flatten out at some demand-driven upper limit.<BR>
<B>Source: </B>Tuomi,
Ilkka. "The Lives and Death of Moore's Law." Nov. 2002.
<I>First Monday</I>. 8 Aug. 2008
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html" TARGET="_blank">http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
<LI><P CLASS="western" STYLE="margin-bottom: 0in">
<B>Claim: </B>"In
accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift,
also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm
into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g.,
three-dimensional circuits) takes over when the old paradigm
approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least
four times in the history of computation." — Ray Kurzweil, <I>The
Law of Accelerating Returns </I>(2001)<BR>
<B>Implication:</B> The
costs of hardware will continue falling exponentially for at least a
century.
<input type="button" onclick="loadPercentiles('Kurzweil', 14.5, 16.0855, 17.671);" value="Load distribution"</input><BR>
<B>Source: </B>Kurzweil, Ray. "The Law of
Accelerating Returns." KurzweilAI.net. 7 Mar. 2001. 8
Aug. 2008
<<FONT COLOR="#000080"><U><A TARGET="_blank" CLASS="western" HREF="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1" TARGET="_blank">http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1</A></U></FONT>>.</P>
</UL>
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