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<h1>Visualizing "The Future According to You"</h1>
<p>We want to provide a canvas on which you can paint your
predictions of the future. Not just a passive canvas, but an
active canvas: one that can hold not just your predictions of
particular times, but also your predictions about trends and
changes: a system where you can input your beliefs and watch
the future move.</p>
<p>Our questions are designed to take your beliefs as
input and see what those beliefs imply. We tried to
make as few assumptions as possible, and we tried to
make our assumptions as non-controversial as possible;
we want the interesting parts of the future to come
from you. (We did have to introduce some assumptions
to simplify our model — we wanted the
questionnaire to predict your next sixty years, not to
take your next sixty years to fill out. If you'd like
to learn more, check the <a href="faq.html">frequently
asked questions</a> or dive into
the <a href="ufHelp/GoryMath.html">gory mathematical
details</a>).</p>
<p>Besides making our canvas active and giving it room for
your beliefs, we aim to provide a canvas that can hold your
full uncertainty. Most futurism is about telling a single,
specific story about what might happen. Specific stories are
great in cases where you know exactly what will happen.
However, if you're dealing with a wide swath of future
possibilities and you're a human being, chances are you don't
know what will happen. You have some guesses, you know some
things are more likely than others, but you can't say "In
September of 2038, John Smith will invent the Such-And-Such
Widget, which will allow him to build human-level
AI".</p>
<p>In the Uncertain Future, we let you input
the full range of your uncertainties — and we show you the
distribution over futures that your current, uncertain beliefs
imply. We help you create your own picture of the uncertain
future.</p>
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<h2>How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:</h2>
<p>We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your
answer to the question: "When will human-level AI be
invented?" We'll model your beliefs in four parts:</p>
<p>
<ol>
<li>Is human-level AI possible in principle?</li>
<li>Assuming business as usual (no nuclear or other
catastrophes, and no brain-boosting methods that seriously
speed up research), how long until human-level AI?</li>
<li>What if a nuclear or other catastrophe interrupts AI research?</li>
<li>What if future brain-boosting methods speed AI research?</li>
</ol>
</p>
<p><a id="large-start-link" href="main.html">Ready to start?</a></p>
<p style="font-size: 0.8em;">The Uncertain Future requires Java 6 or later.
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.java.com/en/download/index.jsp">
Click here</a>
to get a Java runtime environment.
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<p style="font-size: 0.8em;" id="ie-warning">We recommend using the browser
<a href="http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/personal.html">Firefox</a>
or <a href="http://www.opera.com">Opera</a> on
Linux/Windows
and <a href="http://www.apple.com/safari/">Safari</a>
on OS X (Mac). Not all of the features are available in
Internet Explorer for Windows or on Firefox for OS X.</p>
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<h3>The Uncertain Future is a project of
the <a href="http://www.singinst.org/">Singularity
Institute for Artificial Intelligence</a>.</h3>
<p><strong>The Uncertain Future</strong> is still in
beta. If you have comments or want more
information,
email <a href="mailto:uncertainfuture@singinst.org">uncertainfuture@singinst.org</a>,
or leave us a note
at <a href="http://siai-uncertainfuture.blogspot.com/">our comments blog</a>.
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