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Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 13:28:27 +0000 (UTC)
From: Mashuri Clark <mashuribc@gmail.com>
To: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org, Owen <ogunden@phauna.org>, 
	Eric Lombrozo <elombrozo@gmail.com>
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Cc: Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance"
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CORRECTION: That's Paul Sztorc. Not Peter. =C2=A0Apologies for my abysmal p=
roofreading.

--
MC




On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, "Eric Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev" <bitc=
oin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:










Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we use theory, e=
mpirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?
On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxf=
oundation.org> wrote:
Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surpri=
se that the results are implausible.

On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-d=
ev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@list=
s.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to wrestle =
with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:=C2=A0 =C2=A0http=
s://blocksizedebate.com/
=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) =
so those numbers aren't live. But...
Network hash rate
 3,255.17 PH/s =C2=A0(same block size) 5,032.64 PH/s =C2=A0(block size incr=
ease)

 4,969.68 PH/s =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee)
 3,132.09 PH/s =C2=A0(replace-by-fee)
Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the=
 current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for t=
he last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period t=
oo. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, =
when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it jus=
t doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given th=
at site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with big=
ger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5b=
tc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is =
realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction=
.
Daily transaction volume 168,438.22 tx/day =C2=A0(same block size) 193,773.=
08 tx/day =C2=A0(block size increase)
 192,603.80 tx/day =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee) 168,406.73 tx/day =C2=A0(repla=
ce-by-fee)

That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size incr=
ease; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a 30%-50% i=
ncrease in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If that's really =
the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be enough for the =
next two years...
(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increa=
sing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks g=
o; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure =
I want to give that much weight to that one either)
Cheers,aj
--=20
Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au>


bitcoin-dev mailing list
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
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<html><head></head><body><div>CORRECTION: That's Paul Sztorc. Not Peter. &n=
bsp;Apologies for my abysmal proofreading.<br /><br /><div class=3D"acompli=
_signature">--<br />MC</div><br /></div><br /><br /><br />
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, &quot;Eric=
 Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev&quot; <span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bit=
coin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank">bitcoin-dev@lists.lin=
uxfoundation.org</a>&gt;</span> wrote:<br />
<br />

<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1p=
x #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">




<div dir=3D"3D&quot;ltr&quot;">
<meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html charset=3Dutf-8" />R=
ather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we use theory, em=
pirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?<div class=3D""><br =
class=3D"" /><div><blockquote type=3D"cite" class=3D""><div class=3D"">On A=
ug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin=
-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundatio=
n.org</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline" /><div cl=
ass=3D""><div class=3D"">Given there is no money at stake in these predicti=
on games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible.<br class=3D""=
 /><br class=3D"" /><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 A=
M EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@list=
s.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>=
&gt; wrote:<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0=
.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-fami=
ly:monospace"><span style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D"">On 4 =
August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev </span><span dir=3D"lt=
r" style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D"">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:=
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">bitcoin=
-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>&gt;</span><span style=3D"font-family:ari=
al,sans-serif" class=3D""> wrote:</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=
=3D"gmail_extra"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quot=
e" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">=
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D""><div class=3D"">And the preliminary results of =
using a prediction market to try to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks =
roughly correct to me, too:</div><div class=3D"">&nbsp; &nbsp;<a href=3D"ht=
tps://blocksizedebate.com/" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">https://blocksized=
ebate.com/</a></div></div></blockquote><div class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></d=
iv><div class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:monosp=
ace">=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early Ju=
ly?) so those numbers aren't live. But...</div><div class=3D"gmail_default"=
 style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail=
_default"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">Network hash rat=
e</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"=
Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><sp=
an style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">3,255.17 PH/s &nbsp;(same blo=
ck size)</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-=
span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=
=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">5,032.64 PH/s &nbsp;(block size incre=
ase)</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=
=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></f=
ont></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=
=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=3D"font-fami=
ly:monospace" class=3D"">4,969.68 PH/s &nbsp;(no replace-by-fee)</span><br =
class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" cl=
ass=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>3=
,132.09 PH/s &nbsp;(replace-by-fee)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default=
"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div><div cl=
ass=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Those numbers see=
m completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the current hashrate=
 (&lt; 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for the last doubli=
ng, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period too. (That migh=
t've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, when doublings=
 were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it just doesn't seem=
 a supportable prediction now)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><fo=
nt face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div><div class=
=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">That the PH/s rate i=
s higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given that site also predict=
s USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with bigger blocks, so I ass=
ume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5btc at $555 each is a=
bout 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is realistic, it would =
compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction.</font></div><div c=
lass=3D""><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div=
></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Dai=
ly transaction volume</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=
=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-spa=
ce:pre"> </span>168,438.22 tx/day &nbsp;(same block size)</font></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span class=3D"=
Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>193,773.08 tx/day &nbsp;(=
block size increase)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D=
"gmail_default"><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span c=
lass=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </=
span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">192,603.80 tx/day &nb=
sp;(no replace-by-fee)</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=
=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span=
><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">168,406.73 tx/day &nbsp;(=
replace-by-fee)</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><=
span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></d=
iv><div class=3D"gmail_default">That's only a 15% increase in transaction v=
olume due to the block size increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k=
 tx/day is also only a 30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/=
day currently. If that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size w=
ould probably be enough for the next two years...</div><div class=3D""><spa=
n style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></div>=
<div class=3D""><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">(Predictin=
g that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing block=
 sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go; but giv=
en I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure I want to =
give that much weight to that one either)</span></div><div class=3D""><span=
 style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></div><=
/div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Cheer=
s,</font></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D"">aj</font></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></div></div>-- <=
br class=3D"" /><div class=3D"gmail_signature">Anthony Towns &lt;<a href=3D=
"mailto:aj@erisian.com.au" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">aj@erisian.com.au</=
a>&gt;</div>
</div></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 2.5em; margin-bottom: 1em; border-bot=
tom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, =
0);" class=3D""><br class=3D"webkit-block-placeholder" /></div><pre class=
=3D"k9mail"><hr class=3D"" /><br class=3D"" />bitcoin-dev mailing list<br c=
lass=3D"" /><a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=
=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br class=3D"" /><a href=3D"=
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev" class=3D"">=
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev</a><br class=
=3D"" /></pre></blockquote></div></div>____________________________________=
___________<br class=3D"" />bitcoin-dev mailing list<br class=3D"" /><a hre=
f=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@l=
ists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br class=3D"" />https://lists.linuxfoundation.=
org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev<br class=3D"" /></div></blockquote></div><=
br class=3D"" /></div>
</div>

</blockquote>
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