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To: Daniel Lipshitz <daniel@gap600.com>,
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Subject: [bitcoin-dev] [Opt-in full-RBF] Zero-conf apps in immediate danger
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Core adding full RBF is a change of node policy that may be highly inconve=
nient for zero-conf users, but there has always been and will always be a =
risk of a double-spend for anyone that treats zero-confirmation transactio=
ns as settled. It's literally in the name - this transaction has zero conf=
irmations and no guarantee it'll make it into a block, and so has not yet =
settled.


The perception seems to be that Core adding the full RBF option is increas=
ing the risk to zero-conf users, but I'm not convinced that that is the ca=
se - someone wanting to double-spend attack you isn't going to be bothered=
 to do so over a few thousand sats (unless they can do it thousands of tim=
es), and losing a few thousand sats to a double-spend isn't the biggest de=
al.


It's always been the risk of getting double-spent out of hundreds or thous=
ands of bitcoins that's worth seriously worrying about, which is much more=
 the kind of attack a determined attacker is able to carry out. Such a det=
ermined attacker is much more likely to attempt and succeed at a sybil att=
ack, or directly colluding with a miner. So your zero-conf risk increases =
non-linearly as the amount of bitcoin being transacted grows. (caveat: thi=
s paragraph is opinion).


There does, however, seem to be a legitimate business for providing insura=
nce/risk management for people that are willing to accept the zero-conf ri=
sk - it is pretty similar to accepting credit cards with a chargeback risk=
 or any payment card with a capture risk, though there's no-one to mediate=
 a dispute. On-chain is final.

But what doesn't make any sense is trying to avoid Bitcoin Core and nodes =
from adopting a full RBF policy to try to protect this use case. As has be=
en pointed out by may others before, full RBF is aligned with miner (and u=
ser) economic incentives and is a node policy, not consensus, so you can't=
 even tell which nodes are doing it nor can you prevent them from doing so=
. Second, Bitcoin core 24 with the full RBF option is already out in the w=
ild at around 5%+ of running nodes and growing, so it's too late to kill i=
t.


So my point is that relying on node policy as part of your protection for =
zero-conf transaction acceptance is fragile, and should not be relied upon=
. The protocol rules have always tacitly allowed double-spending before a =
confirmation, and it has always been clear that there's no consensus on wh=
ich transactions have occurred until they have in a block and have at-leas=
t one confirmation.

The long-term 'what to do about it' is to use Lightning if you want fast p=
ayments with risk-free instant settlement, or as above, accept the zero-co=
nf risk and cover yourself with an insurance premium (e.g. a margin on tra=
nsactions that goes into an insurance fund, and limiting max transaction a=
mount so you're not exposed to uncoverable losses if you do get double-spe=
nd attacked)




Angus
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