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From: Jacob Eliosoff <jacob.eliosoff@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2017 00:05:53 -0400
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Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Miners forced to run non-core code in order to
get segwit activated
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Well, this Saturday's "Chinese roundtable" statement from a bunch of
miners (https://pastebin.com/b3St9VCF) says they intend "NYA" in the
coinbase as support for "the New York consensus SegWit2x program btc1 (
https://github.com/btc1)", whose code includes the (accelerated 336-block)
BIP 91 change. So, other facts or interpretations could come to light, but
until they do we should probably assume that's what the "NYA" (which just
broke 80% over the last 24h) means.
On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 10:11 PM, Mark Friedenbach <mark@friedenbach.org>
wrote:
> 80% have set "NYA" in their coinbase string. We have no idea what that
> means. People are equating it to BIP 91 -- but BIP 91 did not exist at
> the time of the New York agreement, and differs from the actual text
> of the NYA in substantive ways. The "Segwit2MB" that existed at the
> time of the NYA, and which was explicitly referenced by the text is
> the proposal by Sergio Demian Lerner that was made to this mailing
> list on 31 March. The text of the NYA grants no authority for
> upgrading this proposal while remaining compliant with the agreement.
> This is without even considering the fact that in the days after the
> NYA there was disagreement among those who signed it as to what it
> meant.
>
> I feel it is a very dangerous and unwarranted assumption people are
> making that what we are seeing now is either 80% support for BIP-91 or
> for the code in the btc1 repo.
>
> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:36 PM, Erik Aronesty <erik@q32.com> wrote:
> > # Jacob Eliosoff:
> >
> >> will start orphaning non-bit-1 blocks before Aug 1, and we avoid a
> split.
> >
> > Correct. There are 2 short activation periods in BIP91 either of which
> > would avoid a split.
> >
> > # Gregory Maxwell:
> >
> >> unclear to me _exactly_ what it would need to implement to be
> consistent.
> >
> > This is the relevant pull req to core:
> >
> > https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/10444
> >
> > Seems OK. It's technically running now on testnet5. I think it (or a
> > -bip148 option) should be merged as soon as feasible.
> >
> >> previously debunked "XT" and "Classic" hysteria.
> >
> > apples vs oranges, imo. segwit is not a contentious feature. the
> > "bundling" in segwit2x is, but that's not the issue here. the issue i=
s
> we
> > are indirectly requiring miners that strongly support segwit to install
> > consensus protocol changes outside of bitcoin's standard reference.
> 80% of
> > them have signaled they will do so. these are uncharted waters.
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:57 PM, Jacob Eliosoff via bitcoin-dev
> > <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> >>
> >> I could be wrong, but the latest BIP91 implementation (also included i=
n
> >> Segwit2x) cuts the activation period to 336 blocks (2.33 days). (This
> has
> >> been updated at
> >> https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0091.mediawiki.) So
> if 80%
> >> of hashpower is actually running that code and signaling on bit 4 by
> July 25
> >> or so, then those 80+% will start orphaning non-bit-1 blocks before Au=
g
> 1,
> >> and we avoid a split.
> >>
> >> There may still be a few non-bit-1 blocks that get orphaned after Aug =
1,
> >> because they're mined by old BIP141 nodes. But it seems like very few
> >> miners won't be signaling either Segwit2x *or* BIP141 by then...
> >>
> >> Make sense?
> >>
> >>
> >> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:48 PM, Mark Friedenbach <mark@friedenbach.or=
g
> >
> >> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Why do you say activation by August 1st is likely? That would require
> an
> >>> entire difficulty adjustment period with >=3D95% bit1 signaling. That
> seems a
> >>> tall order to organize in the scant few weeks remaining.
> >>>
> >>> On Jun 20, 2017, at 3:29 PM, Jacob Eliosoff via bitcoin-dev
> >>> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> If segwit is activated before Aug 1, as now seems likely, there will =
be
> >>> no split that day. But if activation is via Segwit2x (also likely),
> and at
> >>> least some nodes do & some don't follow through with the HF 3mo later
> >>> (again, likely), agreed w/ Greg that *then* we'll see a split -
> probably in
> >>> Sep/Oct. How those two chains will match up and how the split will
> play out
> >>> is anyone's guess...
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> On Jun 20, 2017 6:16 PM, "Hampus Sj=C3=B6berg via bitcoin-dev"
> >>> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> > Ironically, it looks like most of the segwit2x signaling miners are
> >>> > faking it (because they're not signaling segwit which it requires).
> >>> > It'll be unfortunate if some aren't faking it and start orphaning
> >>> > their own blocks because they are failing to signal segwit.
> >>>
> >>> Well, they're doing some kind of "pre-signaling" in the coinbase at t=
he
> >>> moment, because the segwit2x project is still in alpha-phase accordin=
g
> to
> >>> the timeline. They're just showing commitment.
> >>> I'm sure they will begin signaling on version bit 4/BIP91 as well as
> >>> actually running a segwit2x node when the time comes.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> > As far as prevent a chain split goes, all those things
> >>> > (148/91/segwit2x(per today)) effectively guarantee a chainsplit-- s=
o
> I
> >>> > don't think that holds.
> >>>
> >>> Segwit2x/BIP91/BIP148 will orphan miners that do not run a Segwit2x (=
or
> >>> BIP148) node, because they wouldn't have the new consensus rule of
> requiring
> >>> all blocks to signal for segwit.
> >>> I don't believe there would be any long lasting chainsplit though
> >>> (because of the ~80% hashrate support on segwit2x), perhaps 2-3 block=
s
> if we
> >>> get unlucky.
> >>>
> >>> Hampus
> >>>
> >>> 2017-06-20 23:49 GMT+02:00 Gregory Maxwell via bitcoin-dev
> >>> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>:
> >>>>
> >>>> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 3:44 PM, Erik Aronesty via bitcoin-dev
> >>>> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> >>>> > Because a large percentage of miners are indifferent, right now
> miners
> >>>> > have
> >>>> > to choose between BIP148 and Segwit2x if they want to activate
> Segwit.
> >>>>
> >>>> Miners can simply continuing signaling segwit, which will leave them
> >>>> at least soft-fork compatible with BIP148 and BIP91 (and god knows
> >>>> what "segwit2x" is since they keep changing the actual definition an=
d
> >>>> do not have a specification; but last I saw the near-term behavior t=
he
> >>>> same as BIP91 but with a radically reduced activation window, so the
> >>>> story would be the same there in the near term).
> >>>>
> >>>> Ironically, it looks like most of the segwit2x signaling miners are
> >>>> faking it (because they're not signaling segwit which it requires).
> >>>> It'll be unfortunate if some aren't faking it and start orphaning
> >>>> their own blocks because they are failing to signal segwit.
> >>>>
> >>>> I don't think the rejection of segwit2x from Bitcoin's developers
> >>>> could be any more resolute than what we've already seen:
> >>>> https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support
> >>>>
> >>>> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 5:22 PM, Mark Friedenbach via bitcoin-dev
> >>>> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> >>>> > I think it is very na=C3=AFve to assume that any shift would be
> temporary.
> >>>> > We have a hard enough time getting miners to proactively upgrade t=
o
> >>>> > recent versions of the reference bitcoin daemon. If miners interpr=
et
> >>>> > the situation as being forced to run non-reference software in ord=
er
> >>>> > to prevent a chain split because a lack of support from Bitcoin
> Core,
> >>>> > that could be a one-way street.
> >>>>
> >>>> I think this is somewhat naive and sounds a lot like the repeat of t=
he
> >>>> previously debunked "XT" and "Classic" hysteria.
> >>>>
> >>>> There is a reason that segwit2x is pretty much unanimously rejected =
by
> >>>> the technical community. And just like with XT/Classic/Unlimited
> >>>> you'll continue to see a strong correlation with people who are
> >>>> unwilling and unable to keep updating the software at an acceptable
> >>>> level of quality-- esp. because the very founding on their fork is
> >>>> predicated on discarding those properties.
> >>>>
> >>>> If miners want to go off and create an altcoin-- welp, thats somethi=
ng
> >>>> they can always do, and nothing about that will force anyone to go
> >>>> along with it.
> >>>>
> >>>> As far as prevent a chain split goes, all those things
> >>>> (148/91/segwit2x(per today)) effectively guarantee a chainsplit-- so=
I
> >>>> don't think that holds.
> >>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> >>>> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> >>>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> _______________________________________________
> >>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> >>> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> >>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> _______________________________________________
> >>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> >>> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> >>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> >> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> >> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
> >>
> >
>
--001a114b0ef6031af80552707c81
Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<div dir=3D"ltr">Well, this Saturday's "Chinese roundtable" s=
tatement from a bunch of miners=C2=A0(<a href=3D"https://pastebin.com/b3St9=
VCF">https://pastebin.com/b3St9VCF</a>) says they intend "NYA" in=
the coinbase as support for "the New York consensus SegWit2x program =
btc1 (<a href=3D"https://github.com/btc1">https://github.com/btc1</a>)"=
;, whose code includes the (accelerated 336-block) BIP 91 change.=C2=A0 So,=
other facts or interpretations could come to light, but until they do we s=
hould probably assume that's what the "NYA" (which just broke=
80% over the last 24h) means.<div><br></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_extr=
a"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 10:11 PM, Mark Fr=
iedenbach <span dir=3D"ltr"><<a href=3D"mailto:mark@friedenbach.org" tar=
get=3D"_blank">mark@friedenbach.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote cl=
ass=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;p=
adding-left:1ex">80% have set "NYA" in their coinbase string. We =
have no idea what that<br>
means. People are equating it to BIP 91 -- but BIP 91 did not exist at<br>
the time of the New York agreement, and differs from the actual text<br>
of the NYA in substantive ways. The "Segwit2MB" that existed at t=
he<br>
time of the NYA, and which was explicitly referenced by the text is<br>
the proposal by Sergio Demian Lerner that was made to this mailing<br>
list on 31 March. The text of the NYA grants no authority for<br>
upgrading this proposal while remaining compliant with the agreement.<br>
This is without even considering the fact that in the days after the<br>
NYA there was disagreement among those who signed it as to what it<br>
meant.<br>
<br>
I feel it is a very dangerous and unwarranted assumption people are<br>
making that what we are seeing now is either 80% support for BIP-91 or<br>
for the code in the btc1 repo.<br>
<div class=3D"HOEnZb"><div class=3D"h5"><br>
On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:36 PM, Erik Aronesty <<a href=3D"mailto:erik@q=
32.com">erik@q32.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> # Jacob Eliosoff:<br>
><br>
>>=C2=A0 will start orphaning non-bit-1 blocks before Aug 1, and we a=
void a split.<br>
><br>
> Correct.=C2=A0 There are 2 short activation periods in BIP91 either of=
which<br>
> would avoid a split.<br>
><br>
> # Gregory Maxwell:<br>
><br>
>> unclear to me _exactly_ what it would need to implement to be cons=
istent.<br>
><br>
> This is the relevant pull req to core:<br>
><br>
> <a href=3D"https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/10444" rel=3D"noref=
errer" target=3D"_blank">https://github.com/bitcoin/<wbr>bitcoin/pull/10444=
</a><br>
><br>
> Seems OK.=C2=A0 It's technically running now on testnet5.=C2=A0 =
=C2=A0I think it (or a<br>
> -bip148 option) should be merged as soon as feasible.<br>
><br>
>> previously debunked "XT" and "Classic" hysteri=
a.<br>
><br>
> apples vs oranges, imo.=C2=A0 =C2=A0segwit is not a contentious featur=
e.=C2=A0 =C2=A0the<br>
> "bundling" in segwit2x is, but that's not the issue here=
.=C2=A0 =C2=A0the issue is we<br>
> are indirectly requiring miners that strongly support segwit to instal=
l<br>
> consensus protocol changes outside of bitcoin's standard reference=
.=C2=A0 =C2=A080% of<br>
> them have signaled they will do so.=C2=A0 =C2=A0these are uncharted wa=
ters.<br>
><br>
><br>
> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:57 PM, Jacob Eliosoff via bitcoin-dev<br>
> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">bitcoin-d=
ev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<br>
>><br>
>> I could be wrong, but the latest BIP91 implementation (also includ=
ed in<br>
>> Segwit2x) cuts the activation period to 336 blocks (2.33 days).=C2=
=A0 (This has<br>
>> been updated at<br>
>> <a href=3D"https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0091.me=
diawiki" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://github.com/bitcoin/<w=
br>bips/blob/master/bip-0091.<wbr>mediawiki</a>.)=C2=A0 So if 80%<br>
>> of hashpower is actually running that code and signaling on bit 4 =
by July 25<br>
>> or so, then those 80+% will start orphaning non-bit-1 blocks befor=
e Aug 1,<br>
>> and we avoid a split.<br>
>><br>
>> There may still be a few non-bit-1 blocks that get orphaned after =
Aug 1,<br>
>> because they're mined by old BIP141 nodes.=C2=A0 But it seems =
like very few<br>
>> miners won't be signaling either Segwit2x *or* BIP141 by then.=
..<br>
>><br>
>> Make sense?<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 6:48 PM, Mark Friedenbach <<a href=3D"m=
ailto:mark@friedenbach.org">mark@friedenbach.org</a>><br>
>> wrote:<br>
>>><br>
>>> Why do you say activation by August 1st is likely? That would =
require an<br>
>>> entire difficulty adjustment period with >=3D95% bit1 signa=
ling. That seems a<br>
>>> tall order to organize in the scant few weeks remaining.<br>
>>><br>
>>> On Jun 20, 2017, at 3:29 PM, Jacob Eliosoff via bitcoin-dev<br=
>
>>> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">b=
itcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<br>
>>><br>
>>> If segwit is activated before Aug 1, as now seems likely, ther=
e will be<br>
>>> no split that day.=C2=A0 But if activation is via Segwit2x (al=
so likely), and at<br>
>>> least some nodes do & some don't follow through with t=
he HF 3mo later<br>
>>> (again, likely), agreed w/ Greg that *then* we'll see a sp=
lit - probably in<br>
>>> Sep/Oct.=C2=A0 How those two chains will match up and how the =
split will play out<br>
>>> is anyone's guess...<br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> On Jun 20, 2017 6:16 PM, "Hampus Sj=C3=B6berg via bitcoin=
-dev"<br>
>>> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">b=
itcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<br>
>>><br>
>>> > Ironically, it looks like most of the segwit2x signaling =
miners are<br>
>>> > faking it (because they're not signaling segwit which=
it requires).<br>
>>> > It'll be unfortunate if some aren't faking it and=
start orphaning<br>
>>> > their own blocks because they are failing to signal segwi=
t.<br>
>>><br>
>>> Well, they're doing some kind of "pre-signaling"=
in the coinbase at the<br>
>>> moment, because the segwit2x project is still in alpha-phase a=
ccording to<br>
>>> the timeline. They're just showing commitment.<br>
>>> I'm sure they will begin signaling on version bit 4/BIP91 =
as well as<br>
>>> actually running a segwit2x node when the time comes.<br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> > As far as prevent a chain split goes, all those things<br=
>
>>> > (148/91/segwit2x(per today)) effectively guarantee a chai=
nsplit-- so I<br>
>>> > don't think that holds.<br>
>>><br>
>>> Segwit2x/BIP91/BIP148 will orphan miners that do not run a Seg=
wit2x (or<br>
>>> BIP148) node, because they wouldn't have the new consensus=
rule of requiring<br>
>>> all blocks to signal for segwit.<br>
>>> I don't believe there would be any long lasting chainsplit=
though<br>
>>> (because of the ~80% hashrate support on segwit2x), perhaps 2-=
3 blocks if we<br>
>>> get unlucky.<br>
>>><br>
>>> Hampus<br>
>>><br>
>>> 2017-06-20 23:49 GMT+02:00 Gregory Maxwell via bitcoin-dev<br>
>>> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">b=
itcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>>:<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 3:44 PM, Erik Aronesty via bitcoin=
-dev<br>
>>>> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.or=
g">bitcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<br>
>>>> > Because a large percentage of miners are indifferent,=
right now miners<br>
>>>> > have<br>
>>>> > to choose between BIP148 and Segwit2x if they want to=
activate Segwit.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> Miners can simply continuing signaling segwit, which will =
leave them<br>
>>>> at least soft-fork compatible with BIP148 and BIP91 (and g=
od knows<br>
>>>> what "segwit2x" is since they keep changing the =
actual definition and<br>
>>>> do not have a specification; but last I saw the near-term =
behavior the<br>
>>>> same as BIP91 but with a radically reduced activation wind=
ow, so the<br>
>>>> story would be the same there in the near term).<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> Ironically, it looks like most of the segwit2x signaling m=
iners are<br>
>>>> faking it (because they're not signaling segwit which =
it requires).<br>
>>>> It'll be unfortunate if some aren't faking it and =
start orphaning<br>
>>>> their own blocks because they are failing to signal segwit=
.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> I don't think the rejection of segwit2x from Bitcoin&#=
39;s developers<br>
>>>> could be any more resolute than what we've already see=
n:<br>
>>>> <a href=3D"https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Segwit_support" rel=
=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/<wbr>Segwit_su=
pport</a><br>
>>>><br>
>>>> On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 5:22 PM, Mark Friedenbach via bitc=
oin-dev<br>
>>>> <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.or=
g">bitcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<br>
>>>> > I think it is very na=C3=AFve to assume that any shif=
t would be temporary.<br>
>>>> > We have a hard enough time getting miners to proactiv=
ely upgrade to<br>
>>>> > recent versions of the reference bitcoin daemon. If m=
iners interpret<br>
>>>> > the situation as being forced to run non-reference so=
ftware in order<br>
>>>> > to prevent a chain split because a lack of support fr=
om Bitcoin Core,<br>
>>>> > that could be a one-way street.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> I think this is somewhat naive and sounds a lot like the r=
epeat of the<br>
>>>> previously debunked "XT" and "Classic"=
hysteria.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> There is a reason that segwit2x is pretty much unanimously=
rejected by<br>
>>>> the technical community.=C2=A0 And just like with XT/Class=
ic/Unlimited<br>
>>>> you'll continue to see a strong correlation with peopl=
e who are<br>
>>>> unwilling and unable to keep updating the software at an a=
cceptable<br>
>>>> level of quality-- esp. because the very founding on their=
fork is<br>
>>>> predicated on discarding those properties.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> If miners want to go off and create an altcoin-- welp, tha=
ts something<br>
>>>> they can always do,=C2=A0 and nothing about that will forc=
e anyone to go<br>
>>>> along with it.<br>
>>>><br>
>>>> As far as prevent a chain split goes, all those things<br>
>>>> (148/91/segwit2x(per today)) effectively guarantee a chain=
split-- so I<br>
>>>> don't think that holds.<br>
>>>> ______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
>>>> bitcoin-dev mailing list<br>
>>>> <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">b=
itcoin-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a><br>
>>>> <a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listi=
nfo/bitcoin-dev" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://lists.linuxfo=
undation.<wbr>org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-<wbr>dev</a><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> ______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
>>> bitcoin-dev mailing list<br>
>>> <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">bitco=
in-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a><br>
>>> <a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/=
bitcoin-dev" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://lists.linuxfounda=
tion.<wbr>org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-<wbr>dev</a><br>
>>><br>
>>><br>
>>> ______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
>>> bitcoin-dev mailing list<br>
>>> <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">bitco=
in-dev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a><br>
>>> <a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/=
bitcoin-dev" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://lists.linuxfounda=
tion.<wbr>org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-<wbr>dev</a><br>
>><br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> ______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
>> bitcoin-dev mailing list<br>
>> <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org">bitcoin-d=
ev@lists.<wbr>linuxfoundation.org</a><br>
>> <a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitc=
oin-dev" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://lists.linuxfoundation=
.<wbr>org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-<wbr>dev</a><br>
>><br>
><br>
</div></div></blockquote></div><br></div>
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