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From: Prayank <prayank@tutanota.de>
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Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Prediction Markets and Bitcoin
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Good morning=C2=A0ZmnSCPxj,

This will be a long email because I want to cover all the things and diffic=
ult to express them in few sentences or respond to the tweets about use of =
futures markets in Bitcoin.

TL;DR: Prediction markets or futures markets can be helpful in collecting m=
ore information and hedging however, if used incorrectly can become a reaso=
n for failure of Bitcoin.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

>=C2=A0Of course development must be free to do what is best technically, a=
nd to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workable. Th=
us the market must follow development.

Agree.

>=C2=A0Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose =
what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money that =
is being modified. Thus development must follow the market.

Disagree.=C2=A0

1.A position in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is not=
 equivalent to funding Bitcoin development.

2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or projects can always=
 have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They can never impose or f=
orce something at least in Bitcoin protocol.

> what is unclear is what the market wants, thus I think prediction markets=
 are something that are needed in order for the negotiation

Partially agree. Yes, its not clear what the market wants and sometimes its=
 unclear even after expiry of futures contract because two people can look =
at the same data and share different analysis. Prediction markets are not n=
eeded for negotiation but can be helpful sometimes.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

3 things I mentioned in TL;DR: Hedging, Collecting information and Incorrec=
t usage

1.Hedging:
Futures market can be useful in hedging few things in Bitcoin. Jack Mallers=
 had shared the idea of using futures markets for 'fees' in Lightning Confe=
rence:=C2=A0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DrBCG0btUlTw

Summary of the presentation(Hedging the chain): Derivatives contracts are u=
sed to hedge financial exposure.=C2=A0 Projects and businesses that use bit=
coin transactions regularly prefer paying less transaction fees. Miners rev=
enue increases if transaction fees goes up and subsidy is reduced after eve=
ry 210,000 blocks so miners prefer high transaction fees or more fees per b=
lock.

Examples:

A)Zap expects $1000/month on-chain operating costs. Longs(1x) on-chain fee =
futures. If bitcoin transaction fees for the month costs more than $1000, t=
he loss will be covered with profits from long position. If long position i=
s in loss because fees are low, it will be covered by paying less than $100=
0 for the month in transaction fees.

Miner expects $1000/month on-chain fee profits. Shorts(1x) on-chain fee fut=
ures. If short position is in loss because fees go up, loss will be covered=
 with more profits from mining. If profits are less from mining because fee=
s was low, loss will be covered with profits in short position,

B)Hashrate Derivatives:=C2=A0https://onthebrink-podcast.com/tim-kelly-bitoo=
da/

C)Consider there is a futures contract for Taproot soft fork. Alice has don=
e enough research and thinks Taproot will be activated. She opens a long po=
sition. Bob thinks miners signaling will not reach the required threshold, =
so Taproot will not be activated with MASF. Bob opens a short position. Car=
ol is working on a project that will work better with taproot activated. Sh=
e is not interested in speculating but wants to hedge the financial exposur=
e. Carol expects her project will receive $10000 funding and make $1000 pro=
fits per month. She opens a short position (1x) which will cover the loss i=
ncase taproot is not activated. If taproot is not activated, UASF can take =
another year which will delay her funding and profits but she can cover thi=
s loss with the profits from short position. This futures contract will exp=
ire on=C2=A02021-08-11 00:00 UTC and settlement is based on multiple oracle=
s that broadcast results for `getblockchaininfo` regularly for their nodes.=
 Start date can be before or after signaling. Trade-offs: If the futures co=
ntract starts before signaling, miners are likely to follow the market (not=
 necessary). If the futures contract starts after a week of signaling, trad=
ers can use this information while opening a position. In this example, fut=
ures contract starts from=C2=A02021-05-01 00:00 UTC.

Similarly if we improve privacy in Bitcoin with a soft fork that includes c=
onfidential transactions, Chainalysis can use such futures contract to open=
 a long position because it affects their business. If CT-SF is activated, =
they can cover some loss with the profits from long position.=C2=A0

2.Collecting more information:
a - Bitcoin Dev Mailing List
b - Different PRs: GitHub repository for Bitcoin Core and other implementat=
ions
c - IRC channels
d - Bitcoin Stackexchange (If not sure about some technical things involved=
 in a soft fork)
e - Reddit posts
f - Twitter (Not the best place to discuss anything important but used a lo=
t so consider it as a source)
g- Opinion of mining pools: 2nd column in the table=C2=A0https://taprootact=
ivation.com/
h- Bitcoin meetups
i - Bitcoin podcasts
k- Interacting with different people involved in exchanges(centralized and =
DEX), wallets, merchants, layer 2 projects, darknet forums, journalists and=
 activists that use bitcoin for censorship resistant payments, people in co=
untries where local currency cannot be used to store value long term, new d=
evelopers interested to build Bitcoin projects, people and organizations fu=
nding different Bitcoin projects or devs etc.
l - Miners signaling:=C2=A0https://taproot.watch/=C2=A0(This is not voting,=
 it represents "readiness")
m-Futures market using P2P derivatives:=C2=A0https://github.com/p2pderivati=
ves/p2pderivatives-client

I don't think futures market in this case will be able to aggregate and ref=
lect all available information so everything mentioned above has its own im=
portance which should be considered. Maybe I missed few things.

3.Incorrect usage of futures markets in Bitcoin and other issues:

Issues and few examples:

Incentives: If you create a futures market to predict if someone is alive o=
r not, there can always be someone trying to exploit it by betting on death=
 and kill the person before expiry of futures contract. Similarly, miners c=
an manipulate fees in short term and affect the futures market suggested by=
 Jack Mallers.

Legality: It may not be possible for everyone to participate in such market=
s or some people may avoid because of laws in their country.

Knowledge: You need more than just money and click on a button to understan=
d changes proposed in a BIP. Not everyone can understand the technical thin=
gs involved. Due to this lack of knowledge, the crowd can sometimes be wron=
g.

Volume and Liquidity: Thin orderbooks and low trading volumes can be manipu=
lated easily.

Prediction market inaccuracies:

-Brexit
-2016 US Presidential Elections
-In 2004 presidential markets a single trader made a series of large invest=
ments in an apparent attempt to make one candidate appear stronger (This ma=
nipulation was for short term but=C2=A0markets can remain irrational longer=
 than you can remain solvent)
-Finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003
-Nomination of John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2005

A)We don't have enough sample size to conclude anything about use of future=
s markets for Bitcoin soft forks in past.

B)Futures markets cannot be used alone to 'decide' 'things in Bitcoin by ig=
noring everything else. Example: A soft fork is proposed as BIP. Code to im=
plement is reviewed. Most users agree with the improvements. Mining pools, =
exchanges, merchants, different projects, other businesses have no issues. =
Miners signaling in first week looks positive. Futures market is uncertain =
and this uncertainty is reflected in signaling for sometime. People who are=
 against UASF think Bitcoin doesn't need any improvements. Miners signaling=
 was more than 70% but never reach the threshold and soft fork is not activ=
ated. Any discussions about UASF are termed as anti-Bitcoin by few devs bec=
ause "markets".=C2=A0 This soft fork could have improved privacy and add mo=
re features. However, we ignore everything and respond with "ossification" =
meme or something else on Twitter when someone asks for basic improvements =
in Bitcoin.

Futures markets should exist and nobody can stop people from participating =
in such markets however we should be careful in using them for Bitcoin.

--=20
 Prayank

Apr 16, 2021, 09:09 by ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com:

> Good morning Prayank,
>
>
>> I think prediction markets or such tokens might help in adding to the in=
formation we already have however they don't decide or replace anything. Bi=
tcoin development should impact such markets and not the other way around.=
=C2=A0
>>
>
> "Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but compe=
tition for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed have=
 followed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those wise=
 enough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse. " -- CEO Nwab=
udike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly", *Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri*
>
> This is the tension between the necessary freedom of discovering strange =
new techniques, and the exigencies of life, where every joule of negentropy=
 is a carefully measured resource.
>
> Of course development must be free to do what is best technically, and to=
 experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workable.
> Thus the market must follow development.
>
> Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose what =
direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money that is be=
ing modified.
> Thus development must follow the market.
>
> It is the negotiation of the two that is difficult.
>
> Overall, I think a lot of the developer arguments are reasonably clear --=
- what is unclear is what the market wants, thus I think prediction markets=
 are something that are needed in order for the negotiation between these t=
wo aspects to advance.
>
> Regards,
> ZmnSCPxj
>


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<div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !imp=
ortant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: n=
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webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-d=
ecoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decorati=
on-color: initial;">Good morning&nbsp;ZmnSCPxj,<br></div><div style=3D"outl=
ine: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-ta=
p-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48=
, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot=
;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans=
-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Se=
goe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-liga=
tures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:=
 normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: n=
one; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke=
-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thicknes=
s: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;=
"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-selec=
t: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-=
user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system=
-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue=
&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;=
Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-st=
yle: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; fon=
t-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-=
indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spa=
cing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, =
255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; t=
ext-decoration-color: initial;">This will be a long email because I want to=
 cover all the things and difficult to express them in few sentences or res=
pond to the tweets about use of futures markets in Bitcoin.<br></div><div s=
tyle=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important=
; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; c=
olor: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSyste=
mFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica,=
 Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quo=
t;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-=
variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; let=
ter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-=
transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit=
-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decorat=
ion-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-col=
or: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box=
; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, =
0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-sy=
stem, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;He=
lvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&q=
uot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 1=
6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:=
 normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: =
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows:=
 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rg=
b(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style=
: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">TL;DR: Prediction markets or fu=
tures markets can be helpful in collecting more information and hedging how=
ever, if used incorrectly can become a reason for failure of Bitcoin.<br></=
div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text =
!important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-dra=
g: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Bli=
nkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, =
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI=
 Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: nor=
mal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight=
: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: =
0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0p=
x; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); te=
xt-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-deco=
ration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: =
border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba=
(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family:=
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, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Col=
or Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; fo=
nt-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-var=
iant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; te=
xt-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: norma=
l; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background=
-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decora=
tion-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
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e-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quo=
t;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emo=
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e: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-c=
aps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-ali=
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tyle: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"out=
line: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-t=
ap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(4=
8, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quo=
t;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, san=
s-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;S=
egoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-lig=
atures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing=
: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: =
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-strok=
e-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickne=
ss: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial=
;">&gt;&nbsp;Of course development must be free to do what is best technica=
lly, and to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workab=
le. Thus the market must follow development.<br></div><div style=3D"outline=
: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-h=
ighlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 4=
8, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Se=
goe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-se=
rif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe=
 UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatur=
es: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: no=
rmal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none=
; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-wi=
dth: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: =
initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><=
br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: =
text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-use=
r-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui=
, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&qu=
ot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Seg=
oe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style=
: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-w=
eight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-ind=
ent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacin=
g: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255=
); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text=
-decoration-color: initial;">Agree.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; b=
ox-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-=
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); f=
ont-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&qu=
ot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quo=
t;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbo=
l&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: norma=
l; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orp=
hans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-s=
pace: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;=
 background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; =
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div>=
<div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !imp=
ortant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: n=
one; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMa=
cSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helv=
etica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emo=
ji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;=
 font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 40=
0; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;=
 text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -=
webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-d=
ecoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decorati=
on-color: initial;">&gt;&nbsp;Of course the people ultimately funding the d=
evelopment must impose what direction that development goes to, after all, =
it is their money that is being modified. Thus development must follow the =
market.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-=
select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -we=
bkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, s=
ystem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica=
 Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &=
quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; fo=
nt-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal=
; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; =
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; wor=
d-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, =
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initi=
al; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none;=
 box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highligh=
t-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);=
 font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&=
quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &q=
uot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Sym=
bol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: nor=
mal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; o=
rphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white=
-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0p=
x; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial=
; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Disagree=
.&nbsp;<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-=
select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -we=
bkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, s=
ystem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica=
 Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &=
quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; fo=
nt-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal=
; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; =
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; wor=
d-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, =
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initi=
al; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none;=
 box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highligh=
t-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);=
 font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&=
quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &q=
uot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Sym=
bol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: nor=
mal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; o=
rphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white=
-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0p=
x; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial=
; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">1.A posi=
tion in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is not equival=
ent to funding Bitcoin development.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; b=
ox-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-=
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); f=
ont-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&qu=
ot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quo=
t;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbo=
l&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: norma=
l; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orp=
hans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-s=
pace: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;=
 background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; =
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div>=
<div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !imp=
ortant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: n=
one; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMa=
cSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helv=
etica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emo=
ji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;=
 font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 40=
0; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;=
 text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -=
webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-d=
ecoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decorati=
on-color: initial;">2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or=
 projects can always have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They c=
an never impose or force something at least in Bitcoin protocol.<br></div><=
div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo=
rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no=
ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac=
SystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helve=
tica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoj=
i&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; =
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400=
; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; =
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w=
ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de=
coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio=
n-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: borde=
r-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0=
, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -app=
le-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &qu=
ot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Em=
oji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-si=
ze: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-=
caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-al=
ign: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; wi=
dows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-colo=
r: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-=
style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">&gt; what is unclear is wh=
at the market wants, thus I think prediction markets are something that are=
 needed in order for the negotiation<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; =
box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight=
-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); =
font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&q=
uot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &qu=
ot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symb=
ol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: norm=
al; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; or=
phans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-=
space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px=
; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;=
 text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div=
><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !im=
portant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: =
none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkM=
acSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Hel=
vetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Em=
oji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal=
; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 4=
00; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px=
; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; =
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-=
decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decorat=
ion-color: initial;">Partially agree. Yes, its not clear what the market wa=
nts and sometimes its unclear even after expiry of futures contract because=
 two people can look at the same data and share different analysis. Predict=
ion markets are not needed for negotiation but can be helpful sometimes.<br=
></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: te=
xt !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-=
drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, =
BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot=
;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe=
 UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: =
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-wei=
ght: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-inden=
t: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing:=
 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);=
 text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-d=
ecoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizin=
g: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: r=
gba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-fami=
ly: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Rob=
oto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple =
Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;;=
 font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-=
variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;=
 text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: no=
rmal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; backgro=
und-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-dec=
oration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: bor=
der-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,=
 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -a=
pple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &=
quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color =
Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-=
size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-varian=
t-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-=
align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; =
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-co=
lor: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoratio=
n-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"=
outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webki=
t-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rg=
b(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &=
quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, =
sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quo=
t;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-=
ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spac=
ing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transfor=
m: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-st=
roke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thic=
kness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: init=
ial;">3 things I mentioned in TL;DR: Hedging, Collecting information and In=
correct usage<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box;=
 user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0=
); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-sys=
tem, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Hel=
vetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&qu=
ot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16=
px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: =
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: s=
tart; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: =
2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb=
(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style:=
 initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline:=
 none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-hi=
ghlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48=
, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Seg=
oe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-ser=
if, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe =
UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligature=
s: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: nor=
mal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;=
 white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-wid=
th: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: i=
nitial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">1.=
Hedging:<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user=
-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -w=
ebkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, =
system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetic=
a Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, =
&quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; f=
ont-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: norma=
l; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;=
 text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; wo=
rd-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,=
 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: init=
ial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Futures market can be useful in hedgi=
ng few things in Bitcoin. Jack Mallers had shared the idea of using futures=
 markets for 'fees' in Lightning Conference:&nbsp;<a style=3D"outline: none=
; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; user-select: text !important; -we=
bkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word; -web=
kit-user-drag: none;" href=3D"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DrBCG0btUlTw=
" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://www.youtube.com/wat=
ch?v=3DrBCG0btUlTw</a><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: bo=
rder-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0=
, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -=
apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, =
&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color=
 Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font=
-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-varia=
nt-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text=
-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;=
 widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-c=
olor: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decorati=
on-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D=
"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webk=
it-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: r=
gb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, =
&quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial,=
 sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &qu=
ot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant=
-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spa=
cing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transfo=
rm: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-s=
troke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thi=
ckness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: ini=
tial;">Summary of the presentation(Hedging the chain): Derivatives contract=
s are used to hedge financial exposure.&nbsp; Projects and businesses that =
use bitcoin transactions regularly prefer paying less transaction fees. Min=
ers revenue increases if transaction fees goes up and subsidy is reduced af=
ter every 210,000 blocks so miners prefer high transaction fees or more fee=
s per block.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; =
user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)=
; -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-syst=
em, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helv=
etica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quo=
t;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16p=
x; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: n=
ormal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: st=
art; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2=
; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(=
255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: =
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: =
none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-hig=
hlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48,=
 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Sego=
e UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-seri=
f, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe U=
I Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures=
: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: norm=
al; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; =
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-widt=
h: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: in=
itial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Exa=
mples:<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-s=
elect: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -web=
kit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, sy=
stem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica =
Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &q=
uot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; fon=
t-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;=
 font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; t=
ext-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word=
-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 2=
55, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initia=
l; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; =
box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight=
-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); =
font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&q=
uot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &qu=
ot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symb=
ol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: norm=
al; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; or=
phans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-=
space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px=
; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;=
 text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">A)Zap exp=
ects $1000/month on-chain operating costs. Longs(1x) on-chain fee futures. =
If bitcoin transaction fees for the month costs more than $1000, the loss w=
ill be covered with profits from long position. If long position is in loss=
 because fees are low, it will be covered by paying less than $1000 for the=
 month in transaction fees.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizin=
g: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: r=
gba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-fami=
ly: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Rob=
oto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple =
Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;;=
 font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-=
variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;=
 text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: no=
rmal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; backgro=
und-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-dec=
oration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div sty=
le=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; =
-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; col=
or: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemF=
ont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, A=
rial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;=
, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-va=
riant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; lette=
r-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tr=
ansform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-t=
ext-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoratio=
n-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color=
: initial;">Miner expects $1000/month on-chain fee profits. Shorts(1x) on-c=
hain fee futures. If short position is in loss because fees go up, loss wil=
l be covered with more profits from mining. If profits are less from mining=
 because fees was low, loss will be covered with profits in short position,=
<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select:=
 text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-us=
er-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-u=
i, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&q=
uot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Se=
goe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-styl=
e: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-=
weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-in=
dent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spaci=
ng: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 25=
5); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; tex=
t-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-si=
zing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color=
: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-f=
amily: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, =
Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;App=
le Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quo=
t;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; fo=
nt-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans:=
 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:=
 normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; back=
ground-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-=
decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">B)Hashrate Deri=
vatives:&nbsp;<a style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inh=
erit; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0,=
 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-user-drag: none;" href=3D"https:=
//onthebrink-podcast.com/tim-kelly-bitooda/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" ta=
rget=3D"_blank">https://onthebrink-podcast.com/tim-kelly-bitooda/</a><br></=
div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text =
!important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-dra=
g: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Bli=
nkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, =
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI=
 Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: nor=
mal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight=
: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: =
0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0p=
x; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); te=
xt-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-deco=
ration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: =
border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba=
(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family:=
 -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto=
, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Col=
or Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; fo=
nt-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-var=
iant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; te=
xt-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: norma=
l; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background=
-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decora=
tion-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">C)Consider there is a=
 futures contract for Taproot soft fork. Alice has done enough research and=
 thinks Taproot will be activated. She opens a long position. Bob thinks mi=
ners signaling will not reach the required threshold, so Taproot will not b=
e activated with MASF. Bob opens a short position. Carol is working on a pr=
oject that will work better with taproot activated. She is not interested i=
n speculating but wants to hedge the financial exposure. Carol expects her =
project will receive $10000 funding and make $1000 profits per month. She o=
pens a short position (1x) which will cover the loss incase taproot is not =
activated. If taproot is not activated, UASF can take another year which wi=
ll delay her funding and profits but she can cover this loss with the profi=
ts from short position. This futures contract will expire on&nbsp;2021-08-1=
1 00:00 UTC and settlement is based on multiple oracles that broadcast resu=
lts for `getblockchaininfo` regularly for their nodes. Start date can be be=
fore or after signaling. Trade-offs: If the futures contract starts before =
signaling, miners are likely to follow the market (not necessary). If the f=
utures contract starts after a week of signaling, traders can use this info=
rmation while opening a position. In this example, futures contract starts =
from&nbsp;2021-05-01 00:00 UTC.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-s=
izing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-colo=
r: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-=
family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;,=
 Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Ap=
ple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&qu=
ot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; f=
ont-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans=
: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space=
: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; bac=
kground-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text=
-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div=
 style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !importa=
nt; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none;=
 color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSys=
temFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetic=
a, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&q=
uot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; fon=
t-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; l=
etter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; tex=
t-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webk=
it-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decor=
ation-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-c=
olor: initial;">Similarly if we improve privacy in Bitcoin with a soft fork=
 that includes confidential transactions, Chainalysis can use such futures =
contract to open a long position because it affects their business. If CT-S=
F is activated, they can cover some loss with the profits from long positio=
n.&nbsp;<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user=
-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -w=
ebkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, =
system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetic=
a Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, =
&quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; f=
ont-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: norma=
l; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;=
 text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; wo=
rd-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,=
 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: init=
ial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none=
; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlig=
ht-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48)=
; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI=
&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &=
quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Sy=
mbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: no=
rmal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; =
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; whit=
e-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0=
px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initia=
l; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">2.Colle=
cting more information:<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: b=
order-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(=
0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: =
-apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto,=
 &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Colo=
r Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; fon=
t-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-vari=
ant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; tex=
t-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal=
; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-=
color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decorat=
ion-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">a - Bitcoin Dev Mailin=
g List<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-s=
elect: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -web=
kit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, sy=
stem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica =
Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &q=
uot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; fon=
t-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;=
 font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; t=
ext-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word=
-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 2=
55, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initia=
l; text-decoration-color: initial;">b - Different PRs: GitHub repository fo=
r Bitcoin Core and other implementations<br></div><div style=3D"outline: no=
ne; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highl=
ight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 4=
8); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe =
UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif,=
 &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI =
Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: =
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal=
; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; wh=
ite-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:=
 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: init=
ial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">c - I=
RC channels<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; u=
ser-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);=
 -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-syste=
m, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helve=
tica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot=
;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px=
; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: no=
rmal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: sta=
rt; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;=
 word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(2=
55, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: i=
nitial; text-decoration-color: initial;">d - Bitcoin Stackexchange (If not =
sure about some technical things involved in a soft fork)<br></div><div sty=
le=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; =
-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; col=
or: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemF=
ont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, A=
rial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;=
, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-va=
riant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; lette=
r-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tr=
ansform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-t=
ext-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoratio=
n-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color=
: initial;">e - Reddit posts<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizi=
ng: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: =
rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-fam=
ily: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Ro=
boto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple=
 Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;=
; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font=
-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2=
; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: n=
ormal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; backgr=
ound-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-de=
coration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">f - Twitter (Not =
the best place to discuss anything important but used a lot so consider it =
as a source)<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; =
user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)=
; -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-syst=
em, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helv=
etica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quo=
t;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16p=
x; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: n=
ormal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: st=
art; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2=
; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(=
255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: =
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">g- Opinion of mining pools: 2nd c=
olumn in the table&nbsp;<a style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; =
color: inherit; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: =
rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-user-drag: none;" href=
=3D"https://taprootactivation.com/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" target=3D"_=
blank">https://taprootactivation.com/</a><br></div><div style=3D"outline: n=
one; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-high=
light-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, =
48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe=
 UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif=
, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI=
 Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:=
 normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: norma=
l; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; w=
hite-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width=
: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: ini=
tial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">h- B=
itcoin meetups<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box=
; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, =
0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-sy=
stem, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;He=
lvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&q=
uot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 1=
6px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:=
 normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: =
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows:=
 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rg=
b(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style=
: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">i - Bitcoin podcasts<br></div><=
div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo=
rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no=
ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac=
SystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helve=
tica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoj=
i&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; =
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400=
; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; =
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w=
ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de=
coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio=
n-color: initial;">k- Interacting with different people involved in exchang=
es(centralized and DEX), wallets, merchants, layer 2 projects, darknet foru=
ms, journalists and activists that use bitcoin for censorship resistant pay=
ments, people in countries where local currency cannot be used to store val=
ue long term, new developers interested to build Bitcoin projects, people a=
nd organizations funding different Bitcoin projects or devs etc.<br></div><=
div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impo=
rtant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: no=
ne; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMac=
SystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helve=
tica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoj=
i&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; =
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400=
; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; =
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -w=
ebkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-de=
coration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoratio=
n-color: initial;">l - Miners signaling:&nbsp;<a style=3D"outline: none; bo=
x-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; user-select: text !important; -webkit=
-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-=
user-drag: none;" href=3D"https://taproot.watch/" rel=3D"noopener noreferre=
r" target=3D"_blank">https://taproot.watch/</a>&nbsp;(This is not voting, i=
t represents "readiness")<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing:=
 border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgb=
a(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family=
: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Robot=
o, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Co=
lor Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; f=
ont-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-va=
riant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; t=
ext-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: norm=
al; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; backgroun=
d-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decor=
ation-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">m-Futures market usi=
ng P2P derivatives:&nbsp;<a style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box;=
 color: inherit; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color:=
 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-user-drag: none;" hre=
f=3D"https://github.com/p2pderivatives/p2pderivatives-client" rel=3D"noopen=
er noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://github.com/p2pderivatives/p2pderiv=
atives-client</a><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-=
box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, =
0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple=
-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot=
;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoj=
i&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size=
: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-ca=
ps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-alig=
n: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; wido=
ws: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color:=
 rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-st=
yle: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outl=
ine: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-ta=
p-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48=
, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot=
;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans=
-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Se=
goe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-liga=
tures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:=
 normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: n=
one; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke=
-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thicknes=
s: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;=
">I don't think futures market in this case will be able to aggregate and r=
eflect all available information so everything mentioned above has its own =
importance which should be considered. Maybe I missed few things.<br></div>=
<div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !imp=
ortant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: n=
one; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMa=
cSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helv=
etica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emo=
ji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;=
 font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 40=
0; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;=
 text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -=
webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-d=
ecoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decorati=
on-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: bord=
er-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, =
0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -ap=
ple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &q=
uot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color E=
moji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-s=
ize: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant=
-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-a=
lign: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; w=
idows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-col=
or: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration=
-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">3.Incorrect usage of futu=
res markets in Bitcoin and other issues:<br></div><div style=3D"outline: no=
ne; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highl=
ight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 4=
8); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe =
UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif,=
 &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI =
Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: =
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal=
; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; wh=
ite-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:=
 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: init=
ial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br><=
/div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text=
 !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-dr=
ag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Bl=
inkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,=
 Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe U=
I Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: no=
rmal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weigh=
t: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent:=
 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0=
px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); t=
ext-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-dec=
oration-color: initial;">Issues and few examples:<br></div><div style=3D"ou=
tline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-=
tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(=
48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &qu=
ot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sa=
ns-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;=
Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-li=
gatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacin=
g: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:=
 none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stro=
ke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickn=
ess: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initia=
l;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-sel=
ect: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webki=
t-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, syst=
em-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Ne=
ue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quo=
t;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-=
style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; f=
ont-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; tex=
t-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-s=
pacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255=
, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial;=
 text-decoration-color: initial;">Incentives: If you create a futures marke=
t to predict if someone is alive or not, there can always be someone trying=
 to exploit it by betting on death and kill the person before expiry of fut=
ures contract. Similarly, miners can manipulate fees in short term and affe=
ct the futures market suggested by Jack Mallers.<br></div><div style=3D"out=
line: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-t=
ap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(4=
8, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quo=
t;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, san=
s-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;S=
egoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-lig=
atures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing=
: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: =
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-strok=
e-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickne=
ss: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial=
;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-sele=
ct: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit=
-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, syste=
m-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neu=
e&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot=
;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-s=
tyle: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; fo=
nt-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text=
-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-sp=
acing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,=
 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; =
text-decoration-color: initial;">Legality: It may not be possible for every=
one to participate in such markets or some people may avoid because of laws=
 in their country.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border=
-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0,=
 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -appl=
e-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quo=
t;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emo=
ji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-siz=
e: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-c=
aps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-ali=
gn: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; wid=
ows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color=
: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-s=
tyle: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"out=
line: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-t=
ap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(4=
8, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quo=
t;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, san=
s-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;S=
egoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-lig=
atures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing=
: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: =
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-strok=
e-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickne=
ss: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial=
;">Knowledge: You need more than just money and click on a button to unders=
tand changes proposed in a BIP. Not everyone can understand the technical t=
hings involved. Due to this lack of knowledge, the crowd can sometimes be w=
rong.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-se=
lect: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webk=
it-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, sys=
tem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica N=
eue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &qu=
ot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font=
-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; =
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; te=
xt-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-=
spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 25=
5, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial=
; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; b=
ox-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-=
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); f=
ont-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&qu=
ot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quo=
t;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbo=
l&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: norma=
l; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orp=
hans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-s=
pace: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;=
 background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; =
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Volume and=
 Liquidity: Thin orderbooks and low trading volumes can be manipulated easi=
ly.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-sele=
ct: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit=
-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, syste=
m-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neu=
e&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot=
;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-s=
tyle: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; fo=
nt-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text=
-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-sp=
acing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,=
 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; =
text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box=
-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-co=
lor: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); fon=
t-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot=
;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;=
Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&=
quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;=
 font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orpha=
ns: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-spa=
ce: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; b=
ackground-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; te=
xt-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Prediction m=
arket inaccuracies:<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: borde=
r-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0=
, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -app=
le-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &qu=
ot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Em=
oji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-si=
ze: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-=
caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-al=
ign: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; wi=
dows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-colo=
r: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-=
style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"ou=
tline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-=
tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(=
48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &qu=
ot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sa=
ns-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;=
Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-li=
gatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacin=
g: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:=
 none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stro=
ke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickn=
ess: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initia=
l;">-Brexit<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; u=
ser-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);=
 -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-syste=
m, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helve=
tica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot=
;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px=
; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: no=
rmal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: sta=
rt; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;=
 word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(2=
55, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: i=
nitial; text-decoration-color: initial;">-2016 US Presidential Elections<br=
></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: te=
xt !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-=
drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, =
BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot=
;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe=
 UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: =
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-wei=
ght: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-inden=
t: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing:=
 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);=
 text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-d=
ecoration-color: initial;">-In 2004 presidential markets a single trader ma=
de a series of large investments in an apparent attempt to make one candida=
te appear stronger (This manipulation was for short term but&nbsp;markets c=
an remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent)<br></div><div styl=
e=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -=
webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; colo=
r: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFo=
nt, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Ar=
ial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;,=
 &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-var=
iant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter=
-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tra=
nsform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-te=
xt-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration=
-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:=
 initial;">-Finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003<br></div><d=
iv style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !impor=
tant; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: non=
e; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacS=
ystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvet=
ica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji=
&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; f=
ont-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;=
 letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; t=
ext-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -we=
bkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-dec=
oration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration=
-color: initial;">-Nomination of John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court in =
2005<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-sel=
ect: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webki=
t-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, syst=
em-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Ne=
ue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quo=
t;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-=
style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; f=
ont-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; tex=
t-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-s=
pacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255=
, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial;=
 text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; bo=
x-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-c=
olor: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); fo=
nt-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quo=
t;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot=
;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol=
&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal=
; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orph=
ans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-sp=
ace: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; =
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; t=
ext-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">A)We don't =
have enough sample size to conclude anything about use of futures markets f=
or Bitcoin soft forks in past.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-si=
zing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color=
: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-f=
amily: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, =
Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;App=
le Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quo=
t;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; fo=
nt-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans:=
 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:=
 normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; back=
ground-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-=
decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div =
style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !importan=
t; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; =
color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSyst=
emFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica=
, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&qu=
ot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font=
-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; le=
tter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text=
-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webki=
t-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decora=
tion-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-co=
lor: initial;">B)Futures markets cannot be used alone to 'decide' 'things i=
n Bitcoin by ignoring everything else. Example: A soft fork is proposed as =
BIP. Code to implement is reviewed. Most users agree with the improvements.=
 Mining pools, exchanges, merchants, different projects, other businesses h=
ave no issues. Miners signaling in first week looks positive. Futures marke=
t is uncertain and this uncertainty is reflected in signaling for sometime.=
 People who are against UASF think Bitcoin doesn't need any improvements. M=
iners signaling was more than 70% but never reach the threshold and soft fo=
rk is not activated. Any discussions about UASF are termed as anti-Bitcoin =
by few devs because "markets".&nbsp; This soft fork could have improved pri=
vacy and add more features. However, we ignore everything and respond with =
"ossification" meme or something else on Twitter when someone asks for basi=
c improvements in Bitcoin.<br></div><div style=3D"outline: none; box-sizing=
: border-box; user-select: text !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rg=
ba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-famil=
y: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Robo=
to, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple C=
olor Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; =
font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-v=
ariant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; =
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: nor=
mal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; backgrou=
nd-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-deco=
ration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br></div><div styl=
e=3D"outline: none; box-sizing: border-box; user-select: text !important; -=
webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; colo=
r: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFo=
nt, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Ar=
ial, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;,=
 &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-var=
iant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter=
-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tra=
nsform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-te=
xt-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration=
-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:=
 initial;">Futures markets should exist and nobody can stop people from par=
ticipating in such markets however we should be careful in using them for B=
itcoin.<br></div><div><br></div><div>-- <br></div><div> Prayank</div><div><=
br></div><div><br></div><div>Apr 16, 2021, 09:09 by ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com=
:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"tutanota_quote" style=3D"border-left: 1px s=
olid #93A3B8; padding-left: 10px; margin-left: 5px;"><div>Good morning Pray=
ank,<br></div><div><br></div><blockquote>I think prediction markets or such=
 tokens might help in adding to the information we already have however the=
y don't decide or replace anything. Bitcoin development should impact such =
markets and not the other way around.&nbsp;<br></blockquote><div><br></div>=
<div>"Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but co=
mpetition for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed h=
ave followed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those w=
ise enough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse. " -- CEO N=
wabudike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly", *Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri*<br><=
/div><div><br></div><div>This is the tension between the necessary freedom =
of discovering strange new techniques, and the exigencies of life, where ev=
ery joule of negentropy is a carefully measured resource.<br></div><div><br=
></div><div>Of course development must be free to do what is best technical=
ly, and to experiment and see what other techniques are possible or workabl=
e.<br></div><div>Thus the market must follow development.<br></div><div><br=
></div><div>Of course the people ultimately funding the development must im=
pose what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money =
that is being modified.<br></div><div>Thus development must follow the mark=
et.<br></div><div><br></div><div>It is the negotiation of the two that is d=
ifficult.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Overall, I think a lot of the develo=
per arguments are reasonably clear --- what is unclear is what the market w=
ants, thus I think prediction markets are something that are needed in orde=
r for the negotiation between these two aspects to advance.<br></div><div><=
br></div><div>Regards,<br></div><div>ZmnSCPxj<br></div></blockquote><div><b=
r></div>  </body>
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