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Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Yesterday's Taproot activation meeting on
 lockinontimeout (LOT)
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You say "short term PR", I say "risking millions of user dollars".

On 2/18/21 09:51, Michael Folkson wrote:
>  > getting unlucky and hitting a 4-block reorg that happens to include a double-spend and some PR around an exchange 
> losing millions would be worse than having Taproot is good.
> 
> We are at the point where an upgrade that confers significant long term benefits for the whole ecosystem is not as 
> important as bad short term PR? That is a depressing outlook if that is what you believe.
> 
> Even in that worst case scenario exchanges should not lose money if they are competent and are able to manage that risk.
> 
> On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 2:42 PM Matt Corallo <lf-lists@mattcorallo.com <mailto:lf-lists@mattcorallo.com>> wrote:
> 
>     We've had several softforks in Bitcoin which, through the course of their activation, had a several-block reorg. That
>     should be indication enough that we need to very carefully consider activation to ensure we reduce the risk of that as
>     much as absolutely possible. Again, while I think Taproot is a huge improvement and am looking forward to being able to
>     use it, getting unlucky and hitting a 4-block reorg that happens to include a double-spend and some PR around an
>     exchange losing millions would be worse than having Taproot is good.
> 
>     Matt
> 
>     On 2/18/21 09:26, Michael Folkson wrote:
>      > Thanks for your response Matt. It is a fair challenge. There is always going to be an element of risk with soft
>     forks,
>      > all we can do is attempt to minimize that risk. I would argue that risk has been minimized for Taproot.
>      >
>      > You know (better than I do in fact) that Bitcoin (and layers built on top of it) greatly benefit from upgrades
>     such as
>      > Taproot. To say we shouldn't do Taproot or any future soft forks because there is a small but real risk of chain
>     splits
>      > I think is shortsighted. Indeed I think even if we collectively decided not to do any future soft fork upgrades ever
>      > again on this mailing list that wouldn't stop soft fork attempts from other people in future.
>      >
>      > I don't think there is anything else we can do to minimize that risk for the Taproot soft fork at this point
>     though I'm
>      > open to ideas. To reiterate that risk will never be zero. I don't think I see Bitcoin as fragile as you seem to
>     (though
>      > admittedly you have a much better understanding than me of what happened in 2017).
>      >
>      > The likely scenario for the Taproot soft fork is LOT turns out to be entirely irrelevant and miners activate Taproot
>      > before it becomes relevant. And even the unlikely worst case scenario would only cause short term disruption and
>      > wouldn't kill Bitcoin long term.
>      >
>      > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 2:01 PM Matt Corallo <lf-lists@mattcorallo.com <mailto:lf-lists@mattcorallo.com>
>     <mailto:lf-lists@mattcorallo.com <mailto:lf-lists@mattcorallo.com>>> wrote:
>      >
>      >     If the eventual outcome is that different implementations (that have material *transaction processing* userbases,
>      >     and I’m not sure to what extent that’s true with Knots) ship different consensus rules, we should stop here
>     and not
>      >     activate Taproot. Seriously.
>      >
>      >     Bitcoin is a consensus system. The absolute worst outcome at all possible is to have it fall out of consensus.
>      >
>      >     Matt
>      >
>      >>     On Feb 18, 2021, at 08:11, Michael Folkson via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
>     <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>      >>     <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>>> wrote:
>      >>
>      >>     
>      >>     Right, that is one option. Personally I would prefer a Bitcoin Core release sets LOT=false (based on what I have
>      >>     heard from Bitcoin Core contributors) and a community effort releases a version with LOT=true. I don't think
>     users
>      >>     should be forced to choose something they may have no context on before they are allowed to use Bitcoin Core.
>      >>
>      >>     My current understanding is that roasbeef is planning to set LOT=false on btcd (an alternative protocol
>      >>     implementation to Bitcoin Core) and Luke Dashjr hasn't yet decided on Bitcoin Knots.
>      >>
>      >>
>      >>
>      >>     On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 11:52 AM ZmnSCPxj <ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com <mailto:ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com>
>     <mailto:ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com <mailto:ZmnSCPxj@protonmail.com>>> wrote:
>      >>
>      >>         Good morning all,
>      >>
>      >>         > "An activation mechanism is a consensus change like any other change, can be contentious like any other
>      >>         change, and we must resolve it like any other change. Otherwise we risk arriving at the darkest timeline."
>      >>         >
>      >>         > Who's we here?
>      >>         >
>      >>         > Release both and let the network decide.
>      >>
>      >>         A thing that could be done, without mandating either LOT=true or LOT=false, would be to have a release that
>      >>         requires a `taprootlot=1` or `taprootlot=0` and refuses to start if the parameter is not set.
>      >>
>      >>         This assures everyone that neither choice is being forced on users, and instead what is being forced on
>     users,
>      >>         is for users to make that choice themselves.
>      >>
>      >>         Regards,
>      >>         ZmnSCPxj
>      >>
>      >>         >
>      >>         > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 3:08 AM Michael Folkson via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
>     <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>      >>         <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>>> wrote:
>      >>         >
>      >>         > > Thanks for your response Ariel. It would be useful if you responded to specific points I have made
>     in the
>      >>         mailing list post or at least quote these ephemeral "people" you speak of. I don't know if you're responding
>      >>         to conversation on the IRC channel or on social media etc.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > > The argument comes from a naive assumption that users MUST upgrade to the choice that is submitted
>     into
>      >>         code. But in fact this isn't true and some voices in this discussion need to be more humble about what users
>      >>         must or must not run.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > I personally have never made this assumption. Of course users aren't forced to run any particular
>     software
>      >>         version, quite the opposite. Defaults set in software versions matter though as many users won't change
>     them.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > > Does no one realize that it is a very possible outcome that if LOT=true is released there may be
>     only a
>      >>         handful of people that begin running it while everyone else delays their upgrade (with the very good
>     reason of
>      >>         not getting involved in politics) and a year later those handful of people just become stuck at the
>     moment of
>      >>         MUST_SIGNAL, unable to mine new blocks?
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > It is a possible outcome but the likely outcome is that miners activate Taproot before LOT is even
>      >>         relevant. I think it is prudent to prepare for the unlikely but possible outcome that miners fail to
>     activate
>      >>         and hence have this discussion now rather than be unprepared for that eventuality. If LOT is set to
>     false in a
>      >>         software release there is the possibility (T2 in
>      >> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html>
>      >>         <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html>>) of individuals or a
>      >>         proportion of the community changing LOT to true. In that sense setting LOT=false in a software release
>      >>         appears to be no more safe than LOT=true.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > > The result: a wasted year of waiting and a minority of people who didn't want to be lenient with
>     miners
>      >>         by default.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > There is the (unlikely but possible) possibility of a wasted year if LOT is set to false and miners fail
>      >>         to activate. I'm not convinced by this perception that LOT=true is antagonistic to miners. I actually
>     think it
>      >>         offers them clarity on what will happen over a year time period and removes the need for coordinated or
>      >>         uncoordinated community UASF efforts on top of LOT=false.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > > An activation mechanism is a consensus change like any other change, can be contentious like any other
>      >>         change, and we must resolve it like any other change. Otherwise we risk arriving at the darkest timeline.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > I don't know what you are recommending here to avoid "this darkest timeline". Open discussions have
>      >>         occurred and are continuing and in my mailing list post that you responded to **I recommended we propose
>      >>         LOT=false be set in protocol implementations such as Bitcoin Core**. I do think this apocalyptic language
>      >>         isn't particularly helpful. In an open consensus system discussion is healthy, we should prepare for bad or
>      >>         worst case scenarios in advance and doing so is not antagonistic or destructive. Mining pools have pledged
>      >>         support for Taproot but we don't build secure systems based on pledges of support, we build them to minimize
>      >>         trust in any human actors. We can be grateful that people like Alejandro have worked hard on
>      >> taprootactivation.com <http://taprootactivation.com> <http://taprootactivation.com
>     <http://taprootactivation.com>> (and this effort has informed the discussion) without
>      >>         taking pledges of support as cast iron guarantees.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > TL;DR It sounds like you agree with my recommendation to set LOT=false in protocol implementations in my
>      >>         email :)
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 5:43 AM Ariel Lorenzo-Luaces <arielluaces@gmail.com
>     <mailto:arielluaces@gmail.com>
>      >>         <mailto:arielluaces@gmail.com <mailto:arielluaces@gmail.com>>> wrote:
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > > Something what strikes me about the conversation is the emotion surrounding the letters UASF.
>      >>         > > > It appears as if people discuss UASF as if it's a massive tidal wave of support that is
>     inevitable, like
>      >>         we saw during segwit activation. But the actual definition is "any activation that is not a MASF".
>      >>         > > > A UASF can consist of a single node, ten nodes, a thousand, half of all nodes, all business' nodes, or
>      >>         even all the non mining nodes. On another dimension it can have zero mining support, 51% support, 49%
>     support,
>      >>         or any support right up against a miner activation threshold.
>      >>         > > > Hell a UASF doesn't even need code or even a single node running as long as it exists as a possibility
>      >>         in people's minds.
>      >>         > > > The only thing a UASF doesn't have is miner support above an agreed activation threshold (some number
>      >>         above %51).
>      >>         > > > I say this because it strikes me when people say that they are for LOT=true with the logic that
>     since a
>      >>         UASF is guaranteed to happen then it's better to just make it default from the beginning. Words like
>      >>         coordination and safety are sometimes sprinkled into the argument.
>      >>         > > > The argument comes from a naive assumption that users MUST upgrade to the choice that is submitted
>     into
>      >>         code. But in fact this isn't true and some voices in this discussion need to be more humble about what users
>      >>         must or must not run.
>      >>         > > > Does no one realize that it is a very possible outcome that if LOT=true is released there may be
>     only a
>      >>         handful of people that begin running it while everyone else delays their upgrade (with the very good
>     reason of
>      >>         not getting involved in politics) and a year later those handful of people just become stuck at the
>     moment of
>      >>         MUST_SIGNAL, unable to mine new blocks? Or attracting a minority of miners, activating, and forking off
>     into a
>      >>         minority fork. Then a lot=false could be started that ends up activating the feature now that the stubborn
>      >>         option has ran its course.
>      >>         > > > The result: a wasted year of waiting and a minority of people who didn't want to be lenient with
>     miners
>      >>         by default. The chains could be called BitcoinLenient and BitcoinStubborn.
>      >>         > > > How is that strictly safer or more coordinated?
>      >>         > > > I may be in the minority, or maybe a silent majority, or maybe a majority that just hasn't considered
>      >>         this as a choice but honestly if there is contention about whether we're going to be stubborn or lenient
>     with
>      >>         miners for Taproot and in the future then I prefer to just not activate anything at all. I'm fine for
>     calling
>      >>         bitcoin ossified, accepting that segwit is Bitcoin's last network upgrade. Taproot is amazing but no new
>      >>         feature is worth a network split down the middle.
>      >>         > > > Maybe in 10 or 20 years, when other blockchains implement features like Taproot and many more, we will
>      >>         become envious enough to put aside our differences on how to behave towards miners and finally activate
>     Taproot.
>      >>         > > > An activation mechanism is a consensus change like any other change, can be contentious like any other
>      >>         change, and we must resolve it like any other change. Otherwise we risk arriving at the darkest timeline.
>      >>         > > > Cheers
>      >>         > > > Ariel Lorenzo-Luaces
>      >>         > > > On Feb 17, 2021, at 7:05 AM, Michael Folkson via bitcoin-dev
>     <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>      >>         <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>>> wrote:
>      >>         > > >
>      >>         > > > > Yesterday (February 16th) we held a second meeting on Taproot
>      >>         > > > > activation on IRC which again was open to all. Despite what appeared
>      >>         > > > > to be majority support for LOT=false over LOT=true in the first
>      >>         > > > > meeting I (and others) thought the arguments had not been explored in
>      >>         > > > > depth and that we should have a follow up meeting almost entirely
>      >>         > > > > focused on whether LOT (lockinontimeout) should be set to true or
>      >>         > > > > false.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > The meeting was announced here:
>      >>         > > > > https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html>
>      >>         <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018380.html>>
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > In that mailing list post I outlined the arguments for LOT=true (T1 to
>      >>         > > > > T6) and arguments for LOT=false (F1 to F6) in their strongest form I
>      >>         > > > > could. David Harding responded with an additional argument for
>      >>         > > > > LOT=false (F7) here:
>      >>         > > > > https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018415.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018415.html>
>      >>         <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018415.html
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018415.html>>
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > These meetings are very challenging given they are open to all, you
>      >>         > > > > don’t know who will attend and you don’t know most people’s views in
>      >>         > > > > advance. I tried to give time for both the LOT=true arguments and the
>      >>         > > > > LOT=false arguments to be discussed as I knew there was support for
>      >>         > > > > both. We only tried evaluating which had more support and which had
>      >>         > > > > more strong opposition towards the end of the meeting.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > The conversation log is here:
>      >>         > > > > http://gnusha.org/taproot-activation/2021-02-16.log
>     <http://gnusha.org/taproot-activation/2021-02-16.log> <http://gnusha.org/taproot-activation/2021-02-16.log
>     <http://gnusha.org/taproot-activation/2021-02-16.log>>
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > (If you are so inclined you can watch a video of the meeting here.
>      >>         > > > > Thanks to the YouTube account “Bitcoin” for setting up the livestream:
>      >>         > > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpl5q1ovMLM <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpl5q1ovMLM>
>     <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpl5q1ovMLM <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpl5q1ovMLM>>)
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > A summary of the meeting was provided by Luke Dashjr on Mastodon here:
>      >>         > > > > https://bitcoinhackers.org/@lukedashjr/105742918779234566
>     <https://bitcoinhackers.org/@lukedashjr/105742918779234566>
>      >>         <https://bitcoinhackers.org/@lukedashjr/105742918779234566
>     <https://bitcoinhackers.org/@lukedashjr/105742918779234566>>
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Today's #Bitcoin #Taproot meeting was IMO largely unproductive, but we
>      >>         > > > > did manage to come to consensus on everything but LockinOnTimeout.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Activation height range: 693504-745920
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > MASF threshold: 1815/2016 blocks (90%)
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Keep in mind only ~100 people showed for the meetings, hardly
>      >>         > > > > representative of the entire community.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > So, these details remain JUST a proposal for now.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > It seems inevitable that there won't be consensus on LOT.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Everyone will have to choose for himself. :/
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Personally I agree with most of this. I agree that there wasn’t
>      >>         > > > > overwhelming consensus for either LOT=true or LOT=false. However, from
>      >>         > > > > my perspective there was clearly more strong opposition (what would
>      >>         > > > > usually be deemed a NACK in Bitcoin Core review terminology) from
>      >>         > > > > Bitcoin Core contributors, Lightning developers and other community
>      >>         > > > > members against LOT=true than there was for LOT=false. Andrew Chow
>      >>         > > > > tried to summarize views from the meeting in this analysis:
>      >>         > > > > https://gist.github.com/achow101/3e179501290abb7049de198d46894c7c
>     <https://gist.github.com/achow101/3e179501290abb7049de198d46894c7c>
>      >>         <https://gist.github.com/achow101/3e179501290abb7049de198d46894c7c
>     <https://gist.github.com/achow101/3e179501290abb7049de198d46894c7c>>
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > I am also aware of other current and previous Bitcoin Core
>      >>         > > > > contributors and Lightning developers who didn’t attend the meeting in
>      >>         > > > > person who are opposed to LOT=true. I don’t want to put them in the
>      >>         > > > > spotlight for no reason but if you go through the conversation logs of
>      >>         > > > > not only the meeting but the weeks of discussion prior to this meeting
>      >>         > > > > you will see their views evaluated on the ##taproot-activation
>      >>         > > > > channel. In addition, on taprootactivation.com <http://taprootactivation.com>
>     <http://taprootactivation.com <http://taprootactivation.com>> some mining pools
>      >>         > > > > expressed a preference for lot=false though I don’t know how strong
>      >>         > > > > that preference was.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > I am only one voice but it is my current assessment that if we are to
>      >>         > > > > attempt to finalize Taproot activation parameters and propose them to
>      >>         > > > > the community at this time our only option is to propose LOT=false.
>      >>         > > > > Any further delay appears to me counterproductive in our collective
>      >>         > > > > aim to get the Taproot soft fork activated as early as possible.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Obviously others are free to disagree with that assessment and
>      >>         > > > > continue discussions but personally I will be attempting to avoid
>      >>         > > > > those discussions unless prominent new information comes to light or
>      >>         > > > > various specific individuals change their minds.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Next week we are planning a code review of the Bitcoin Core PR #19573
>      >>         > > > > which was initially delayed because of this LOT discussion. As I’ve
>      >>         > > > > said previously that will be loosely following the format of the
>      >>         > > > > Bitcoin Core PR review club and will be lower level and more
>      >>         > > > > technical. That is planned for Tuesday February 23rd at 19:00 UTC on
>      >>         > > > > the IRC channel ##taproot-activation.
>      >>         > > > >
>      >>         > > > > Thanks to the meeting participants (and those who joined the
>      >>         > > > > discussion on the channel prior and post the meeting) for engaging
>      >>         > > > > productively and in good faith.
>      >>         > >
>      >>         > > --
>      >>         > > Michael Folkson
>      >>         > > Email: michaelfolkson@gmail.com <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com> <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com
>     <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com>>
>      >>         > > Keybase: michaelfolkson
>      >>         > > PGP: 43ED C999 9F85 1D40 EAF4 9835 92D6 0159 214C FEE3
>      >>         > > _______________________________________________
>      >>         > > bitcoin-dev mailing list
>      >>         > > bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>     <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>>
>      >>         > > https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>
>      >>         <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>>
>      >>
>      >>
>      >>
>      >>
>      >>     --
>      >>     Michael Folkson
>      >>     Email: michaelfolkson@gmail.com <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com> <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com
>     <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com>>
>      >>     Keybase: michaelfolkson
>      >>     PGP: 43ED C999 9F85 1D40 EAF4 9835 92D6 0159 214C FEE3
>      >>     _______________________________________________
>      >>     bitcoin-dev mailing list
>      >> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>     <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>>
>      >> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>
>      >>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>     <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>>
>      >
>      >
>      >
>      > --
>      > Michael Folkson
>      > Email: michaelfolkson@gmail.com <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com> <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com
>     <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com>>
>      > Keybase: michaelfolkson
>      > PGP: 43ED C999 9F85 1D40 EAF4 9835 92D6 0159 214C FEE3
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> Michael Folkson
> Email: michaelfolkson@gmail.com <mailto:michaelfolkson@gmail.com>
> Keybase: michaelfolkson
> PGP: 43ED C999 9F85 1D40 EAF4 9835 92D6 0159 214C FEE3