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Date: Sat, 20 Jan 2018 06:30:37 +0000
From: nullius <nullius@nym.zone>
To: Jefferson Carpenter <jeffersoncarpenter2@gmail.com>,
Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Message-ID: <9bb96f6f0d4a9956def943ee3111d51b@nym.zone>
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On 2018-01-17 at 22:31:52 +0000, Jefferson Carpenter=20
<jeffersoncarpenter2@gmail.com> wrote:
>Bitcoin's difficulty will be maxed out within about 400 years, by=20
>Moore's law.
On 2018-01-19 at 20:54:52 +0000, Jefferson Carpenter=20
<jeffersoncarpenter2@gmail.com> wrote:
>In other words, max difficulty for SHA256 might be significantly faster=20
>than forcing the first 256 bits of a SHA512 hash...
=E2=80=9CMoore=E2=80=99s law=E2=80=9D is not a law of nature. Indeed, chip=
makers began bumping=20
up against the limitations of *actual* natural laws about 15=E2=80=9420 yea=
rs=20
ago. That is why instead of increasing core clock, they play the tricks=20
which opened the way for Meltdown and Spectre. Feature size, and thus=20
transistor counts, will soon enough run into physical limitations, too.
But the scenario you describe does not even require such a discussion.
2^256 work for brute force is on the order of 10^77 hashes. For the=20
number of atoms in the observable universe, I=E2=80=99ve seen estimates ran=
ging=20
=66rom 10^78 to 10^82. Thus, you are suggesting that within 400 years,=20
computers will be able to compute one hash for every myriad of atoms in=20
the observable universe=E2=80=94perhaps one hash for every *ten* atoms. =20
Moreover, you suggest that twenty-fourth century computers will do this=20
fast enough to meet Bitcoin=E2=80=99s ten-minute target rate.
Such a proposition bypasses science, leaps over science fiction, and=20
lands in the realm of religion. Perhaps a deity could do this=E2=80=94usin=
g a=20
computer made of other than matter, powered by other than energy. =20
Humans will *never* be capable of such a feat: Not now, and not in a=20
billion years. Certainly not a mere four centuries hence!
(I do not here positively exclude the possibility, however slim, that=20
mathematical breakthroughs may yield a preimage attack on SHA-256 which=20
is significantly better than bruteforce. I *do* positively declare it=20
impossible that Earth-beings will ever be capable of performing 2^256=20
work. Or even 2^128 work, for that matter.)
--=20
nullius@nym.zone | PGP ECC: 0xC2E91CD74A4C57A105F6C21B5A00591B2F307E0C
Bitcoin: bc1qcash96s5jqppzsp8hy8swkggf7f6agex98an7h | (Segwit nested:
3NULL3ZCUXr7RDLxXeLPDMZDZYxuaYkCnG) (PGP RSA: 0x36EBB4AB699A10EE)
=E2=80=9C=E2=80=98If you=E2=80=99re not doing anything wrong, you have noth=
ing to hide.=E2=80=99
No! Because I do nothing wrong, I have nothing to show.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=94=
nullius
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