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Message-ID: <284507c2-b5d1-45a5-849f-408d3bf364a6@murch.one>
Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2025 10:14:47 -0700
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Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] [Draft BIP] Quantum-Resistant Transition Framework
 for Bitcoin
To: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com
References: <4d6ecde7-e959-4e6c-a0aa-867af8577151n@googlegroups.com>
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From: Murch <murch@murch.one>
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This proposal is highly reminiscent of Lopp et al=E2=80=99s "A Post Quantum=
=20
Migration Proposal"=C2=B9 previously discussed on this list=C2=B2.
If this document is explicitly intended as a competing proposal to Lopp=20
et al=E2=80=99s, this proposal would need to explicitly discuss shortcoming=
s of=20
Lopp et al=E2=80=99s proposal in a Related Work section and clearly explain=
=C2=A0in=20
the Motivation and Rationale sections how this new proposal is an=20
improvement to substantiate that the publication of a second proposal is=20
meaningful. As it is currently presented, I don=E2=80=99t consider this pro=
posal=20
a significant value-add due to duplicating work.

Regards,
 =C2=A0 Murch

=C2=B9 https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1895
=C2=B2=20
https://gnusha.org/pi/bitcoindev/CADL_X_fpv-aXBxX+eJ_EVTirkAJGyPRUNqOCYdz5u=
m8zu6ma5Q@mail.gmail.com/.

On 2025-08-07 11:18, 'Bitcoin Foundation' via Bitcoin Development=20
Mailing List wrote:
> BIP: TBD
> Layer: Consensus (soft fork)
> Title: Quantum-Resistant Transition Framework for Bitcoin
> Author: Bitcoin Post-Quantum Working Group=20
> <pq-research@bitcoin.foundation>
> Status: Draft
> Type: Standards Track
> Created: 2025-08-07
> License: MIT
> Requires: BIP-340, BIP-341
>
> =3D=3D ABSTRACT =3D=3D
> This proposal defines a backward-compatible, time-bound migration path=20
> to quantum-resistant (QR) cryptography for Bitcoin. Through phased=20
> deprecation of ECDSA/Schnorr signatures and mandatory adoption of=20
> NIST-standardized post-quantum algorithms, it ensures Bitcoin's=20
> survival against quantum attacks while minimizing disruption to=20
> existing infrastructure.
>
> =3D=3D MOTIVATION =3D=3D
> *Quantum Threat Assessment*
> - PUBLIC KEY EXPOSURE: 25% of Bitcoin's UTXO set (~$150B as of 2025)=20
> is vulnerable to Shor's algorithm due to exposed public keys (P2PK,=20
> reused addresses)
> - ALGORITHMIC ACCELERATION: Google's 2024 trapped-ion breakthrough=20
> demonstrated 99.99% gate fidelity with 50 logical qubits - sufficient=20
> to break 256-bit ECDSA in <8 hours
> - STEALTH ATTACK VECTORS: Quantum adversaries could precompute keys=20
> and execute timed thefts during mempool propagation
>
> *Fundamental ECDSA Vulnerability*
> ECDSA security relies on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem=20
> (ECDLP). Shor's quantum algorithm solves it in O((log n)=C2=B3) time:
> 1. For secp256k1: n =E2=89=88 2=C2=B2=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B6
> 2. Classical security: 128-bit
> 3. Quantum security: 0-bit (broken by Shor)
> 4. Critical exposure: Any public key revealed becomes immediately=20
> vulnerable
>
> *Consequences of Inaction*
> - WEALTH DESTRUCTION: Single theft event could permanently erode trust
> - COORDINATION TRAP: Delayed action risks chaotic emergency hard forks
> - SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE: Quantum break would invalidate Bitcoin's security=20
> model
>
> =3D=3D SPECIFICATION =3D=3D
> *Phase 1: QR Adoption (0-2 years)*
> - Soft-fork activation of QR witness programs (SegWit v3+)
> - New outputs must use OP_CHECKSIG_PQ
> - Classical scripts marked as deprecated
>
> *Phase 2: Legacy Deprecation (5 years)*
> - Creating new classical UTXOs becomes non-standard
> - Wallets default to QR outputs with warnings for classical sends
> - Economic incentive: QR transactions get priority mempool treatment
>
> *Phase 3: Classical Sunset (Block 1,327,121 ~8 years)*
> - Consensus-enforced rejection of classical script spends
> - Frozen UTXOs permanently unspendable (supply reduction)
> - Emergency override: 95% miner vote can delay by 52-week increments
>
> *Phase 4: Recovery Mechanism (Optional)*
> - ZK-proof system for reclaiming frozen funds via:
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Proof of BIP-39 seed knowledge
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Time-locked quantum-resistant scripts
> - Requires separate BIP after 3+ years cryptanalysis
>
> =3D=3D RATIONALE =3D=3D
> *Why Phased Approach?*
> - MARKET CERTAINTY: Fixed timeline eliminates "wait-and-see" stagnation
> - PROGRESSIVE PRESSURE: Gradual restrictions avoid shock transitions
> - SUNK COST PRINCIPLE: Users ignoring 3+ years of warnings assume=20
> responsibility
>
> *Why Freeze Legacy UTXOs?*
> - Prevents quantum arms race for exposed coins
> - Preserves Bitcoin's "lost coins" scarcity principle
> - Avoids centralized redistribution committees
> - Eliminates moral hazard of rewarding late migrators
> - Reduces quantum attack surface
>
> *Algorithm Choice: SPHINCS+-SHAKE256f (SLH-DSA-SHAKE-256f)*
> SECURITY PARAMETERS:
> =C2=A0 n: 256
> =C2=A0 Hash: SHAKE256
> =C2=A0 Classical Security: 2=C2=B2=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B6
> =C2=A0 Quantum Security: 2=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8
> =C2=A0 Private Key: 128 bytes
> =C2=A0 Public Key: 64 bytes
> =C2=A0 Signature: 49,856 bytes
>
> QUANTUM ATTACK RESISTANCE:
> | Attack Type =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Standard Bitcoin | This Syste=
m =C2=A0 | Security=20
> Factor |
> |---------------------|------------------|---------------|---------------=
--|
> | Shor's Algorithm =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Broken =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 | Not applicable| =E2=88=9E =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 |
> | Grover's Algorithm =C2=A0| O(2=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0 | O(2=E2=81=B5=C2=B9=C2=B2) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| 2=C2=B3=E2=81=
=B8=E2=81=B4 advantage =C2=A0|
> | Collision Search =C2=A0 =C2=A0| O(2=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B5) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| O(2=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B5) =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Equival=
ent =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0|
>
> KEY SECURITY (SK 128 bytes):
> - Private key entropy: 1024 bits (2=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=C2=B2=E2=81=B4 possibi=
lities)
> - Quantum brute-force: =E2=88=9A(2=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=C2=B2=E2=81=B4) =3D 2=
=E2=81=B5=C2=B9=C2=B2 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B9=E2=81=B5=E2=81=B4 operations
> - Time required at 1 quintillion ops/sec (10=C2=B9=E2=81=B8): 10=C2=B9=C2=
=B3=E2=81=B6 seconds =E2=89=88 3 =C3=97=20
> 10=C2=B9=C2=B2=E2=81=B8 years
>
> SEED SECURITY (SEED 96 bytes):
> - Possible seeds: 2=E2=81=B7=E2=81=B6=E2=81=B8 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B2=C2=B3=
=C2=B9
> - Quantum brute-force: =E2=88=9A(2=E2=81=B7=E2=81=B6=E2=81=B8) =3D 2=C2=
=B3=E2=81=B8=E2=81=B4 =E2=89=88 10=C2=B9=C2=B9=E2=81=B5 operations
> - Time required at 1 billion ops/sec: 10=C2=B9=E2=81=B0=E2=81=B6 seconds =
=E2=89=88 3 =C3=97 10=E2=81=B9=E2=81=B8 years
>
> INFORMATION THEORETIC ADVANTAGES:
> - Each signature reveals 4 bits of private key material
> - After 20 signatures:
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 ECDSA: Private key fully compromised
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 SPHINCS+: 80 bits revealed (7.81% of key)
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Security margin remains: 944 bits (92.19%)
>
> =3D=3D BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY =3D=3D
> Phase | Legacy Wallets =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | QR Wallets
> ------|---------------------|------------------------
> 1 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Full functionality =C2=A0| Can receive/send both types
> 2 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Can only send to QR | Full functionality
> 3+ =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Frozen funds =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Only QR trans=
actions valid
>
> =3D=3D DEPLOYMENT =3D=3D
> Activation Mechanism:
> - Speedy Trial (BIP-8) with 18-month timeout
> - 90% miner signaling threshold
>
> Monitoring:
> - QR adoption metrics published quarterly
> - Sunset delay requires proof of:
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 <70% exchange/wallet adoption
> =C2=A0 =E2=80=A2 Fundamental flaws in NIST PQC standards
>
> =3D=3D STAKEHOLDER IMPACT =3D=3D
> Group =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Action Required =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Timeline
> ----------------|-------------------------------|-------------------
> Miners =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Upgrade nodes for QR rules =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0| Phase 1 activation
> Exchanges =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 | Implement QR withdrawals =C2=A0 =C2=A0 |=
 Within 18 months of=20
> Phase 1
> Hardware Wallets| Firmware updates for QR sigs | Before Phase 2
> Light Clients =C2=A0 | SPV proofs for QR scripts =C2=A0 =C2=A0| Phase 3 r=
eadiness
>
> =3D=3D REFERENCES =3D=3D
> - SPHINCS+ Implementation:=20
> https://github.com/bitcoin-foundation/Quantum-Resistant-Bitcoin
> - (FIPS 205)=C2=A0SLH-DSA:=20
> https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/FIPS/NIST.FIPS.205.pdf
> - Schnorr Signatures: BIP-0340
>
> =3D=3D COPYRIGHT =3D=3D
> MIT License
>
> ---
>
>
> This BIP presents an alternative quantum-resistant migration approach,=20
> primarily distinguished by its extended transition timeline to=20
> facilitate more comprehensive ecosystem adaptation.
>
> Key features:
> - Includes reference implementation of SPHINCS+-SHAKE256f=20
> (SLH-DSA-SHAKE-256f)
> - Provides comparative analysis against Bitcoin's current ECDSA scheme
> - Detailed technical specifications:
> https://github.com/bitcoin-foundation/Quantum-Resistant-Bitcoin
>
> Formatting note: This BIP draft prioritizes technical accuracy over=20
> visual polish.=C2=A0After incorporating feedback from this discussion, th=
e=20
> final version will be published to GitHub with proper Markdown formatting=
.
>
> Feedback welcome from wallet developers, exchanges, miners, and=20
> security researchers.
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