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From: Owen <ogunden@phauna.org>
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:28:27 -0400
To: Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au>,
	Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>,
	Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
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 Content preview:  Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games,
    it is no surprise that the results are implausible. On August 4, 2015 10:22:19
    AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
    wrote: >On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev < >bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
    wrote: > >> And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try
    to >wrestle >> with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
    >> https://blocksizedebate.com/ >> > >​The scicast prediction market is
    shutdown atm (since early July?) so >those >numbers aren't live. But... >
    >Network hash rate >3,255.17 PH/s (same block size) >5,032.64 PH/s (block
    size increase) > >4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee) >3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)
    > >Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of
    >the >current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months
    >for >the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that
    >period >too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the
    past >year, >when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once
    a year; it >just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now) > >That the PH/s
    rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but >given >that site also
    predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 >with >bigger blocks,
    so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. >Also, >12.5btc at $555
    each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price >increase is realistic,
    it would compensate for almost all of the block >reward reduction. > >Daily
    transaction volume >168,438.22 tx/day (same block size) >193,773.08 tx/day
    (block size increase) > >192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee) >168,406.73
    tx/day (replace-by-fee) > >That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume
    due to the block size >increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day
    is also only a >30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently.
    If >that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably
    >be >enough for the next two years... > >(Predicting that the node count
   will drop from [...] 
 
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Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance"
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Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surpri=
se that the results are implausible=2E

On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-=
dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg> wrote:
>On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <
>bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg> wrote:
>
>> And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to
>wrestle
>> with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
>>    https://blocksizedebate=2Ecom/
>>
>
>=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?=
) so
>those
>numbers aren't live=2E But=2E=2E=2E
>
>Network hash rate
>3,255=2E17 PH/s  (same block size)
>5,032=2E64 PH/s  (block size increase)
>
>4,969=2E68 PH/s  (no replace-by-fee)
>3,132=2E09 PH/s  (replace-by-fee)
>
>Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2=2E9-3=2E6 doublings =
of
>the
>current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months
>for
>the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that
>period
>too=2E (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past
>year,
>when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it
>just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
>
>That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but
>given
>that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555
>with
>bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price=2E
>Also,
>12=2E5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price
>increase is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block
>reward reduction=2E
>
>Daily transaction volume
>168,438=2E22 tx/day  (same block size)
>193,773=2E08 tx/day  (block size increase)
>
>192,603=2E80 tx/day  (no replace-by-fee)
>168,406=2E73 tx/day  (replace-by-fee)
>
>That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size
>increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a
>30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently=2E If
>that's really the case, then a 1=2E5MB-2MB max block size would probably
>be
>enough for the next two years=2E=2E=2E
>
>(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to
>increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as
>centralisation
>risks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions,
>I'm
>not sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)
>
>Cheers,
>aj
>
>--=20
>Anthony Towns <aj@erisian=2Ecom=2Eau>
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>_______________________________________________
>bitcoin-dev mailing list
>bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg
>https://lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev

------TQNWFJVE964X9XAN01O7GM9P9CYDFL
Content-Type: text/html;
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<html><head></head><body>Given there is no money at stake in these predicti=
on games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible=2E<br><br><div=
 class=3D"gmail_quote">On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via=
 bitcoin-dev &lt;bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg&gt; wrote:<block=
quote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0=2E8ex; border-le=
ft: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:monospa=
ce"><span style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif">On 4 August 2015 at 01:22,=
 Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev </span><span dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"font-fami=
ly:arial,sans-serif">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundat=
ion=2Eorg" target=3D"_blank">bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg</a>&=
gt;</span><span style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif"> wrote:</span><br />=
</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><blockquote cla=
ss=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 =2E8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;=
padding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div>And the preliminary results of usin=
g a prediction market to try to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks roug=
hly correct to me, too:</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0<a href=3D"https://blocksize=
debate=2Ecom/" target=3D"_blank">https://blocksizedebate=2Ecom/</a></div></=
div></blockquote><div><br /></div><div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=
=3D"font-family:monospace">=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdo=
wn atm (since early July?) so those numbers aren&#39;t live=2E But=2E=2E=2E=
</div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br /></=
div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace">Netw=
ork hash rate</span><br /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D=
"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><s=
pan style=3D"font-family:monospace">3,255=2E17 PH/s =C2=A0(same block size)=
</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" st=
yle=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=3D"font-f=
amily:monospace">5,032=2E64 PH/s =C2=A0(block size increase)</span><br /></=
div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D=
"monospace"><br /></font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"=
Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><sp=
an style=3D"font-family:monospace">4,969=2E68 PH/s =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee=
)</span><br /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace"><=
span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>3,132=2E09 =
PH/s =C2=A0(replace-by-fee)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace"><br /></font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font fa=
ce=3D"monospace">Those numbers seem completely implausible: that&#39;s ~2=
=2E9-3=2E6 doublings of the current hashrate (&lt; 400PH/s) in 17 months, w=
hen it&#39;s taken 12 months for the last doubling, and there&#39;s a block=
 reward reduction due in that period too=2E (That might&#39;ve been a reaso=
nable prediction sometime in the past year, when doublings were slowing fro=
m once every ~45 days to once a year; it just doesn&#39;t seem a supportabl=
e prediction now)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"mo=
nospace"><br /></font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"mono=
space">That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but g=
iven that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 w=
ith bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price=2E Al=
so, 12=2E5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price i=
ncrease is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block rewar=
d reduction=2E</font></div><div><font face=3D"monospace"><br /></font></div=
></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace">Daily transact=
ion volume</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace=
"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>168,438=
=2E22 tx/day =C2=A0(same block size)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_defaul=
t"><font face=3D"monospace"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-s=
pace:pre"> </span>193,773=2E08 tx/day =C2=A0(block size increase)</font></d=
iv><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D"gmail_default"><br /></div><d=
iv class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-fam=
ily:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace=
">192,603=2E80 tx/day =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee)</span></div><div class=3D"g=
mail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace=
;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace">168,406=2E7=
3 tx/day =C2=A0(replace-by-fee)</span><br /></div><div class=3D"gmail_defau=
lt"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br /></span></div><div class=3D"=
gmail_default">That&#39;s only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to =
the block size increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is al=
so only a 30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently=
=2E If that&#39;s really the case, then a 1=2E5MB-2MB max block size would =
probably be enough for the next two years=2E=2E=2E</div><div><span style=3D=
"font-family:monospace"><br /></span></div><div><span style=3D"font-family:=
monospace">(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 du=
e to increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisat=
ion risks go; but given I&#39;m not that convinced by the other predictions=
, I&#39;m not sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)</spa=
n></div><div><span style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br /></span></div></div=
><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace">Cheers,</font></div>=
</div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace">aj</font></div>=
<div><br /></div></div>-- <br /><div class=3D"gmail_signature">Anthony Town=
s &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:aj@erisian=2Ecom=2Eau" target=3D"_blank">aj@erisian=
=2Ecom=2Eau</a>&gt;</div>
</div></div>
<p style=3D"margin-top: 2=2E5em; margin-bottom: 1em; border-bottom: 1px so=
lid #000"></p><pre class=3D"k9mail"><hr /><br />bitcoin-dev mailing list<br=
 />bitcoin-dev@lists=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg<br /><a href=3D"https://lists=
=2Elinuxfoundation=2Eorg/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev">https://lists=2Elinu=
xfoundation=2Eorg/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev</a><br /></pre></blockquote>=
</div></body></html>
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