Question 9: Will Intelligence Enhancement Change the Picture?

Question 9 focuses on human intelligence enhancement, sometimes called IA (Intelligence Amplification). Several sub-questions explore one approach to intelligence enhancement, namely embryo selection, which relies on existing technologies and well-understood biology. Numerous other possible approaches exist, such as brain training games, intelligence-enhancing pharmaceuticals, and brain-computer interfaces. Any type of IA is important, because it could accelerate technological progress.

Gene sequencing costs have been dropping exponentially for some time. Here is a graph (from Kurzweil (2005)) that shows the trend from 1990 to 2004:

Embryo selection for intelligence would depend upon the availability and cost of sequenced genomes. When will it be possible to sequence an entire human genome for less than $1000?

• Claim: George Church, a professor of genetics and director of the center for computational genetics at Harvard, said the initial PGP data set will include DNA sequence information on 50,000 exons, and predicted that scientists will reach the $1,000 human genome next year: "You guys can hold me to this," he said.
  Implication: A $1,000 genome is imminent.
  Source: Genome Web. "PGP to Publish Initial Data Sets Next Month As Church Predicts $1,000 Genome in 2009". 23 September 2008. <http://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/pgp-publish-initial-data-sets-next-month-church-predicts-1000-genome-2009>

• Claim: The cost of gene sequencing (per base pair) has been decreasing exponentially since 1970.
  Implication: Unless something changes, exponential growth in capability will probably continue into the future.
  Source: Shendure, Jay, Robi D. Mitra, Chris Varma, and George M. Church.
  "Advanced Sequencing Technologies: Methods and Goals." Nature Reviews Genetics 5 (2004): 335-44. <http://www.nature.com/nrg/journal/v5/n5/abs/nrg1325_fs.html>.

• Claim: The NHGRI, a government institute, has awarded grants to researchers with the goal of reducing sequencing costs to $1,000/human genome by 2014.
  Implication: A price of $1,000 per genome is a viable research goal in the near term and is already being actively funded.
  Source: Genome Web. "With $100K Genome in Reach, NHGRI Focuses Advanced-Sequencing Program on $1,000 Goal." 2 September 2008. <http://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/100k-genome-reach-nhgri-focuses-advanced-sequencing-program-1000-goal>.

• Claim: 23andMe, a private company, tests for 600,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in private individuals for $399.
  Implication: There is a large consumer demand for genomics, so research in this area will continue to be heavily funded.
  Source: "23 and Me." 24 July 2008. Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008. <https://www.23andme.com/>.