Two components are necessary to simulate the brain successfully: hardware and software. When will we have sufficient understanding of the brain to be able to create neuromorphic human-level AI? Assume no major disruptions to business as usual, such as human intelligence enhancement, nuclear war or other disasters that set back science, or AI.

• Claim: "Steven Rose, a neurobiologist at England's Open University, rejects the premise that the software of the human brain can be encoded in a computer. He suspects that computation occurs at scales above and below the level of individual neurons and synapses, via genetic, hormonal, and other processes."
  Implication: The brain is so complicated we'll never be able to get the software right.
  Source: Horgan, John. "The Consciousness Conundrum." IEEE Spectrum June 2008: 36-41. IEEE Spectrum Online. <http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6280>.

• Claim: IBM, in cooperation with Henry Markram, launched a project in May 2005, Blue Brain, with the long-term goal of completely simulating a human brain at the molecular level. Their first milestone, simulating a single rat neocortical column, was achieved in December 2006. A 2008 article in SEED magazine said, "But if computing speeds continue to develop at their current exponential pace, and energy efficiency improves, Markram believes that he'll be able to model a complete human brain on a single machine in ten years or less."
  Implication: The entire human brain could be simulated by 2018.
  Sources: IBM Research. Blue Brain Project. "IBM and EPFL Join Forces to Uncover the Secrets of Cognitive Intelligence." Press release. 6 June 2005. Retrieved 9 Aug. 2008. <http://domino.research.ibm.com/comm/pr.nsf/pages/news.20050606_cognitiveintelligence.html>.
  Lehrer, Jonah. "Out of the Blue." Seed Magazine. 3 Mar. 2008. <http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/03/out_of_the_blue.php?page=all&p=y>.

• Claim: In April 2007, a team from the IBM Almaden Research Lab and the University of Nevada successfully simulated a crude representation of half a mouse brain on a Blue Gene/L supercomputer at one-tenth speed. The simulation had 8,000,000 neurons and up to 6,300 synapses per neuron. "Biologically consistent dynamical processes" were observed.
  Implication: We may not be far from simulating a mouse brain on a computer, meaning that human brain simulations may not be far off. The basic neuroarchitecture of mouse and human brains is largely the same. The main difference is the human brain's size, not the nature of its parts. So a successful human brain simulation may be feasible within a few decades or less.
  Source: "Mouse brain simulated on computer." BBC News. 27 Apr. 2007. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6600965.stm>.

• Claim: By 2029, we'll have brain scans with high enough resolution that we'll be able to run simulations of the human brain with such accuracy that these simulations will be considered real people and display human-level intelligence.
  Implication: Probability peak around 2029.
  Source: Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking Adult, 2005.