<head> </head> <body> <h2>How your answers were used to produce the timeline above:</h2> <p>In <strong>A6</strong> you were given your probability for the creation of AI of either the neuromorphic or non-neuromorphic type by various times in the future.</p> <p>The five subquestions in <strong>Q9</strong> collected information about the speedup to AI research capabilities that would result from either iterated embryo selection or other methods of intelligence enhancement. The speedup factor is used to shorten the time in which your stated distribution of times for AI development is reached, as though time were running faster. Like elsewhere in The Uncertain Future, this is done probabilistically. There isn't a single speedup factor; rather, there is a probability distribution over different speedup factors that might occur.</p> <p><strong>A8</strong> showed your estimate that a catastrophe of any sort will halt progress.</p> <p><img src="../img/A9.png" width="850px" alt="Overview of process" /></p> <p>The information from <strong>A8</strong> and <strong>Q9</strong> can be used to amend the probability over time of creating AI to also consider catastrophes that might halt progress in science, and intelligence enhancement technologies that might speed up research.</p> <!--Q9-1: Time when possible to sequence an entire human genome for under $1000 Q9-2: Time of arrival of artificial gametes Q9-3: Contribution by genes to scientific achievement Q9-4: How widely iterated embryo selection will be accepted (Number of IA scientists created over time)? Q9-5: Influence of other methods of intelligence enhancement (speedup)?--> <!-- A9: Artificial intelligence (of the neuromorphic or non-neuromorphic sort) being created at various points in the future, taking into consideration probabilities for science-disrupting catastrophies and intelligence enhancement that speeds AI research. A6 AI (any type) A8 Catastrophe (any type) Q9-1, Q9-2, Q9-3, Q9-4, Q9-5 Speedup due to intelligence enhancement --> <p style="font-size: 0.8em;">*The probabilities aren't just added, take a look at the <a target="_blank" href="A9Math.html">gory math version</a> for more detail.</p> </body>