How your answers were used to produce the timeline above:

The timeline of A8 showed your estimate that a catastrophe of any sort will halt progress.

A9 displayed the probability of either type of AI having occurred at various times in the future, taking into account effects of intelligence enhancement technologies.

The information from A8 and A9 combined gives the probability for a civilization-scale disruption (either human-level AI or a catastrophe halting all scientific progress) having occurred at various times in the future.

*The probabilities aren't just added — take a look at the gory math version for more detail.

You're done!

Thanks for completing the process! You can go back and change your inputs if you want to see how they affect the answers, or you can view the frequently asked questions or dive into the gory mathematical details.