To: Dave Hudson <dave@hashingit.com>, Bob McElrath <bob_bitcoin@mcelrath.org>
References: <201603021456.15820.luke@dashjr.org>
	<5E6E8EFD-2BC0-47F6-8005-5A63821C4276@hashingit.com>
	<20160308220507.GA4388@mcelrath.org>
	<26355E0C-1DDC-4CBD-A044-788C9C135EA6@hashingit.com>
From: Paul Sztorc <truthcoin@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56E08707.8090306@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2016 15:26:47 -0500
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Cc: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Hardfork to fix difficulty drop algorithm
Precedence: list

On 3/9/2016 1:30 PM, Dave Hudson via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> The hash rate has jumped up by almost 70% in the last 6 to 7 months and=
 that implies some pretty serious investments by miners who are quite awa=
re of the halving.
There are a few ways in which that information would be irrelevant:
[1.] It is possible that miners expect to breakeven before the halving.
[2.] It is also possible that miners earnestly believe that there will
be no problem -- however:
=2E..  [2a.] This belief may be mistaken.
=2E..  [2b.] Miners may be counting on Core Devs to fix any problems that=

come up with anything, this one included.

Also, [3.] many miners believe that the price will increase around the
time of the halving, either for market-microstructure reasons or
marketing reasons. I, personally, think that the price is as likely to
go down as up.

On 3/9/2016 1:30 PM, Dave Hudson via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> These same miners were mining with a coin price around $250 last year s=
o in terms of profitability I'm pretty sure that one around $400 won't be=
 a huge concern.
For some miners, currently it costs $X in electricity per coin mined,
and $400 / 2 is less than X. I do not know how representative this
information is.

Paul